NFL Betting: Rams Getting Rare Love From Betting Public

Jason Lake

Sunday, January 3, 2016 12:27 PM GMT

Sunday, Jan. 3, 2016 12:27 PM GMT

The St. Louis Rams weren't the most popular NFL pick this year. But they're getting a fair amount of action for Sunday's season finale against the San Francisco 49ers.

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NFL Pick: UNDER 38
Best Line Offered: at Heritage

 

Jason's 2015 record as of Jan. 1: 51-51-3 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 25-32-1 Total

 

There are some very important divisional rivalry games coming up this Sunday. The game between the St. Louis Rams (7-8 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) and the San Francisco 49ers (4-11 SU, 6-9 ATS) is not one of them. These two teams will miss the playoffs, which leaves very little to play for when they meet at the Field of Jeans to close out the regular season.

People must be getting a bit stir crazy now that the holidays are behind us. The Rams are a popular NFL pick for Week 17; our consensus reports show 57 percent on bettors on St. Louis as a 3-point chalk, with 74 percent of the money landing on the visitors. We're only dealing with an average bet size of $65, though, so it's not like the sharps are opening their wallets and/or purses for this matchup. Hmmmm.

 

Nice Fade
Yeah, something seems strange about this, doesn't it? The Rams weren't exactly a hot pick this year, and it's not like Sunday's game (4:25 p.m.) has captured the hearts and imaginations of the football world. So I did some snooping around on the Interwebs, and I've found some conflicting reports about how much action there is on St. Louis. But they still mostly point to the Rams as the public pick here. At press time, St. Louis had more Wagers Placed than all but four teams on our NFL odds.

Perhaps this is more a fade on the Niners than a follow on the Rams. Any idiot could have seen that San Francisco was going to have some problems this year. It's hard to say whether things have gone even worse than expected; QB Colin Kaepernick has been excommunicated in favor of Blaine Gabbert, their top four running backs are on injured reserve, and the tealeaves do not look good for head coach Jim Tomsula.

 

The Noise of Carpet
Not that the Rams are in great shape, either. RB Todd Gurley will reportedly miss the season finale with a foot injury, cutting short what has otherwise been an excellent rookie campaign. Where will the offense come from on Sunday? QB Case Keenum? He's played quite well for a replacement, actually, just under league average in DVOA at Football Outsiders. But Keenum's no Kurt Warner.

With that in mind, we're going to recommend avoiding this game altogether on the spread, and taking the UNDER on the total of 37.5 points. It's a very low total to make this play with, but these are two of the worst offenses in the NFL, there's a 60-percent chance of rain in the forecast, and the turf in Santa Clara is a joke. The UNDER is 6-1 at home for the Niners this year. Super Bowl 50 is going to be very interesting indeed.
 

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