NFL Betting Predictions - How Are The Sharps Responding For Week 4

Jason Lake

Monday, September 26, 2016 8:58 PM UTC

Monday, Sep. 26, 2016 8:58 PM UTC

After a wild and wacky Sunday, bettors have come out a bit gun-shy for Week 4. But the Pittsburgh Steelers are still a hot NFL pick for their AFC showdown with the Kansas City Chiefs.

On one hand, it was a perfectly ordinary Sunday in the NFL: underdogs held a slight 8-6 ATS advantage, one of the most common results you'd expect. On the other hand, underdogs won six of those games straight-up. It was almost seven, but the Cleveland Browns (+10 away) dug deep and found a way to lose 30-24 to the Miami Dolphins in overtime. Sorry about your damn luck.


So how are the sharps responding for Week 4? Our very early expanded consensus reports show light action across the board, in all of the different sportsbooks, but the team getting the most attention is the Pittsburgh Steelers. They opened as 5-point home favorites on the NFL odds board for Sunday night's matchup (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC) with the Kansas City Chiefs; at press time, the Steelers have the highest average bet of anyone at $87. They're also pulling in 87 percent of monies wagered from 60 percent of the betting population. It's been enough action to move Pittsburgh to –6 at most locations.

Spencer for Hire
Is this really a sharp NFL pick, though? The Steelers (2-1 SU and ATS) just got creamed 34-3 by Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles, losing as 3.5-point road faves. And Kansas City (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) smothered the New York Jets 24-3 as a 3-point home chalk. The Chiefs came into the 2016 campaign as an undervalued commodity; Pittsburgh is a very popular team, placing third on the public money charts after three games.


FiveThirtyEight like the Steelers to win Sunday night's game 55 percent of the time, which is lovely, but that only translates to an Elo-based point spread of Pittsburgh –1.5. And if there was any concern about Kansas City's ability to replace injured RB Jamaal Charles, Spencer Ware (4.9 yards per carry) should have answered that question by now. Charles remains iffy for Week 4, by the way.


It's always nice to get in early and ride the coattails of sharp bettors, but in Pittsburgh's case, we're going to recommend a little patience. The data so far just doesn't support this being a particularly sharp pick. Keep an eye on the consensus numbers, and if the bet size gets big enough to a larger sample, then we can start thinking about what the Steelers can do for us.


Record: 5-3 ATS, 4-2 Totals

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3011249, "sportsbooksIds":[93,1275,180,999996,999991], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]


comment here