NFL Betting Predictions & Free Picks - How To Bet Week 5 Biggest Spreads

Matthew Jordan

Saturday, October 8, 2016 11:57 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 8, 2016 11:57 PM UTC

A 1-2 ATS record on the biggest spread picks of last week, hitting on Houston giving 5  to Tennessee. Missed on Arizona (-9) vs. L.A. and Cleveland (+9) vs. Washington. Here are three of the biggest Week 5 spreads on the NFL odds.


New England Patriots At Cleveland Browns +12

This is the biggest spread of the year thus far, although 5Dimes' number is 1.5 points higher than all of the other of SBR's best sportsbooks. I actually saw this open at 9.5 at a few books and wish I had jumped on that. Incidentally, the Browns really  should have covered in last week's 31-20 loss at Washington. They could have had a long but makeable field-goal try on their second-to-last drive of the game but opted to go for it on fourth-and-6 and of course failed. It's the Browns after all. They are now the only winless team in the NFL. Obviously, the big story here is the return of Patriots defensive end Rob Ninkovich from his four-game suspension for violating the NFL's PED policy. Oh, yeah, Mr. Gisele Bundchen -- otherwise known as Tom Brady -- returns from his four-game suspension as well, meaning I should never have to type the made-up word "Deflategate" again. Brady wasn't allowed any contact at all with the team during the suspension but did do some throwing with former teammate Wes Welker. Brady likes playing winless teams as he is 5-0 against clubs that are 0-4 or worse in his career with 18 touchdown passes and only three picks in them. The last such game was in 2011 vs. the Colts. Cleveland actually leads the NFL in rushing at 149.3 yards per game and its only chance to stay close is to run, run and run some more and chew up clock old-school style. The Patriots defense is ranked 15th against the run (101.3).

NFL Free Pick: I'm taking the points as home double-digit dogs in the NFL cover much more often than not. Browns can manage to lose by only 10 with a garbage score. The Pats are just 2-6 ATS in their past eight road games.

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 New York Jets At Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5 

With all due respect to the unbeaten Denver Broncos and Minnesota Vikings, I think the best team in the NFL right now is Pittsburgh after what it did to a pretty good Kansas City club last week. With Pro Bowl running back Le'Veon Bell active for the first time this season off a three-game suspension, the Steelers slaughtered the Chiefs 43-14. It was over at halftime with the Steelers up 29-0 and Ben Roethlisberger having four TD passes. He finished with five TDs and 300 yards passing. Antonio Brown caught two of those TD throws and Bell had 178 yards from scrimmage. The Atlanta Falcons are the No. 1 offense in the NFL right now, but the Steelers are the best one when fully staffed. The Jets are terrible offensively at the moment because they have the NFL's worst quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick. He is the lowest-rated and has the most interceptions with 10, throwing a total of nine of them the past two weeks in double-digit losses at the Chiefs and vs. the Seahawks. If Fitz throws a pick or two in the first half of this one, Coach Todd Bowles almost has to go to Geno Smith. New York might be without top cornerback Darrelle Revis due to a hamstring injury. Ditto No. 2 receiver Eric Decker (shoulder).

NFL Free Pick: Steelers, although I'm only giving the 7 points offered among a few books across the board.  The Jets are 2-5 ATS in their past seven after a loss. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their past five at home.

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 New York Giants At Green Bay Packers -7.5 

Tough break for the Giants here schedule-wise as not only are they on a short week after visiting Minnesota on Monday night, but the Packers are off their bye week. A lot of talk around the NFL this week has been the antics of Giants WR Odell Beckham Jr. He used to be one of the most popular players in the league but lately has become a petulant whiner who can't control his temper. He was mega-frustrated following Monday's 24-10 loss to the Vikings with three catches for a career-low 23 yards. New York is banged up in the secondary, won't have tight end Larry Donnell (concussion) and it's 50-50 if No. 1 running back Rashad Jennings returns from a two-game absence due to a thumb injury. The Packers are quite healthy with the week off other than tight end Jared Cook and cornerback Sam Shields sitting out this game. Green Bay has won 10 consecutive home games during the month of October and has also won seven of its past eight Sunday night games at Lambeau Field. Overall, the Packers are 8-2 under Coach Mike McCarthy in games played the week after the bye.

NFL Free Pick: Like above, shop around for 7 points like at BetOnline. Give them. New York is 1-5 ATS in its past six games. The Pack are 10-3 ATS in their past 13 after a bye. 

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