We had yet another winning week of prop betting picks in Week 9 and here in Week 10 even though we dropped two on Thursday. So, let’s get back what we lost on Thursday and get our cash rate back up to 60 percent in our NFL Picks.
Season NFL Props Record: 58-42-2
Ryan Tannehill O/U 245.5 passing yards
I’ve never been a big fan of Ryan Tannehill, but as soon as I’m ready to right him off as a starting quarterback in the league, he has a huge game. I’m also reminded that even though there are 32 NFL teams, there might only be about 24 or 25 starting caliber quarterbacks.
Tannehill is winning games though, so he is firmly back in the good group after three straight wins, which should be the most important QB stat. However, for stats and props, Tannehill has been all over the place this season. He has two 300-plus yard passing games and three games where he failed to reach 200 yards.
Now his NFL prop for this week has him at 245.5 against a passing defense that has given up a ton of yards this season. However on the road is a different animal for Tannehill. This season outside of his performance against the Patriots in a game without Tom Brady and where he threw two picks, Tannehill has been horrible on the road. His other two games he threw for less than 200 yards, one touchdowns and one pick. Even against the Chargers, I doubt Tannehill is too successful on the road this week.
Free NFL Pick: UNDER 245.5 (-105)
Best Line Offered: at Bovada
Rob Gronkowski O/U 82 ½ receiving yards
If you listened to the Sharp vs. Swinger podcast, you’ll know what both he and I think about this epic showdown on Sunday between the Seahawks and Patriots. However, both of us seem to think this is going to be a potential Super Bowl preview and both of us think it might be much more defensive in nature.
These two offenses are great, there is no denying, but both of them have holes. The Seahawks’ offensive line is playing better but still a weakness, while the Patriots really don’t have much of a run game.
These two defenses however do not have many holes and they could both stand out in this one. That will lead to less passing, less offense and less points. A guy like Rob Gronkowski, who has been a machine over the last four weeks, might be the guy to bet the under on for this game.
The Seahawks are allowing only 37 yards per game to opposing tight ends this season and while they have yet to face a tight end like Gronk, the game script in this one seems to lead to the Gronk at more of a touchdown threat that one to eat up yards. He has at least one catch of 37 yards or more in his last four games and I don’t see that happening against a good defense like Seattle.
The four teams the Patriots have crushed over their last four games all rank in the bottom half of the league in points allowed to tight ends, while Seattle is third best.