NFL Betting Picks - New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills - Week 8 Predictions

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, October 28, 2016 6:08 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 28, 2016 6:08 PM UTC

With Brady back in activity, the Pats have been in top form, this week the public is going, as always, all in on the Pats. Joe Gavazzi in this article makes the case for a NFL Pick on the Bills!

 New England Patriots -5 vs Buffalo Bills 1:00 ET

Those victories have come by 33-13 at Cleveland, 35-17 at home with Cincinnati and 27-16 at Pittsburgh (no Ben) last week.  That’s a sweep of the AFC North!!  The first two of those wins were dominant statistically.  Last week, however, the Steelers won the yardage battle 375-362 NOTABLY BECAUSE PITTSBURGH QB LANDRY JONES OUTPASSED BRADY 281-222. Nonetheless, since his return 3 games ago, Brady has passed for over 1,000 yards, has an 8/0 ratio (New England has yet to throw an INT this season) and a 132 QBR.  Many of you will remember the game prior to Brady’s return.  With an injured QB Brissette at the controls, the Bills went into New England and came away with a 16-0 shutout victory vs. the Patriots (their first ever shutout in 15 years at Gillette Stadium).  With some solid historical numbers beside them, the public is all over the Patriots with shutout revenge against the team they have dominated.  But, before I can tell you that story, let’s talk a bit about the Buffalo Bills.

Including that New England win, the Bills were on a 4-0 SU ATS run, covering the number by 75 points, while dominating the line of scrimmage, as they entered Miami last weekend.  The running numbers were mind-blowing with an overland edge of 847 (212 RYPG) to 439 (110 RYPG) in those contests.  Though best RB McCoy missed that game and remains questionable for this contest with an injured hamstring, it was shocking to say the least that the Bills WERE OUTRUSHED 256-67 in their 28-25 loss at Miami last week.  The question now becomes are they able to overcome the Patriots’ revenge motive and the following set of dominating numbers to do no worse than hang inside this impost?

New England is 25-9 ATS at this site vs. the division rival Bills, including 14-2 SU ATS, if they are coming off a victory.  In addition (with Brady at the helm), the Pats are 20-4 ATS with revenge, if their foe is coming off a loss.  Those are strong numbers that favor the New England shutout revenge victory in this one.  There is support, however, for the Bills as well.  One must note that Bills’ HC Ryan is 6-3 ATS in his head-to-head history vs. Belichick.  It must further be noted that this is the Patriots’ worst role, as despite covers at lowly Cleveland and injured Pittsburgh in the last 3 weeks, they are still just 5-10 ATS as road chalk L3Y.  Along with public opinion supporting New England, we will take our chances with this LONE RANGER CONTRARY PLAY OF THE WEEK, as only you and I and the LONE RANGER will be backing the Buffalo Bills on Sunday!  I invite you to put the NFL ODDS in your favor and join me in my NFL PICK on Buffalo today.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top rated sportsbooks is offering the best deals!

 Free NFL Pick: Bills +5.5Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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