NFL Betting Picks - Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints - Week 10

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, November 12, 2016 9:22 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 12, 2016 9:22 PM UTC

Defense is ultimately the difference in a game where Denver allows 12 PPG less and 97 yards less per game. Expert handicapper joe Gavazzi provides his insight on this Early Sunday matchup

Denver Broncos vs New Orleans Saints (-3) 1:00 ET

In the NFL, my demarcation line of “puppies” (small dogs) and “big dogs” is at 6 points. That is because true to the form that has been created over the years, this season in the NFL IN ANY GAME WHERE THE LINE IS 6 OR LESS POINTS, THE OUTRIGHT WINNER OF THE CONTEST HAS GONE 88-4 ATS FOR 96% WINNERS. That’s right! Just pick the straight up winner in your handicapping process in competitively priced games, and you would have won your bet close to 100% of the time. This is not to say that one should not shop judiciously for every half point they can garner in the betting line. Rather, it is to let you know that using your focus to isolate the outright winner in competitively priced games is more important than the actual point spread. With that in mind, and knowing the value we are being accorded in this point spread, I feel confident in recommending to you that the Denver Broncos are your “puppy” of the week. 

I made a terrible selection on the Denver Broncos last week, when they were incredulously outrushed 318-33 by Oakland. After a 4-0 SU ATS start, are the defending Super Bowl champs now going through withdrawal with a 2-3 SU ATS mark?  If they need a bit of motivation, all they need do is look at the standings to see they trail both KC and Oakland. That will get your blood flowing if you are a Bronco! History has been strong for the Broncos in this role, as they are 14-6 ATS in non-conference affairs.  

While the Broncos have been sliding, the Saints have been super-surging with a 2-game win streak and 5 consecutive covers. Last week, they put up 41/571. But, that was against the worst defense in the league (San Fran). Returning home is a major boost for a Saints team that averages 33/470 on this field.  

All the above has suddenly translated into favoritism for the Saints in this game. That makes it an easy call to back the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL at 55% completions against QB Brees and the talented New Orleans’ receiving corps. Denver have to get back on the horse this week!

I invite you to put the NFL ODDS in your favor and join me in my NFL PICK on the Denver Broncos as we cash this ticket on our “puppy” of the week.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top rated sportsbooks is offering the best deals!

Free NFL Pick: Broncos +3Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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