NFL Betting Pick - Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans - Week 7

Marcus Mariota

Tuesday, October 18, 2016 7:16 PM GMT

Our NFL handicapper spots an early line on the board with plenty of value on the home team. Can the Down on their luck (no pun intended) Colts stop Mariota on the road?

2016 NFL Record: 6-9-1, -3.85 Units

The Indianapolis Colts (2-4) attempt to shake their road woes in this AFC South matchup at the Tennessee Titans (3-3), as the Titans try to keep up with the 4-2 Houston Texans that sit atop the division. The Colts are winless on the road this year in three tries, very close losses at Denver, Jacksonville, and Houston. Although sitting in 2nd place in the South, the Titans actually have the best point differential of the division, at a staggering -7 points.

The main problem with the Colts is definitely on the defensive side of the ball right now, as they are ranked 28th in the league in points allowed at 29 per game. But more importantly in their matchup with the Titans, and 2nd-year quarterback Marcus Mariota, is that the Colts have not had any luck pressuring quarterbacks so far this year. The Colts are near the bottom of the league in sacks with only 8 in six games, and are on the bottom of the league with only 2 interceptions. They also allow the 30th most yards per game overall at 411.2. My guess is that when you face the Titans you want to force Mariota to make mistakes through the air, and the Colts are just not set up to do that.

In comparison, the Titans defense is likely the reason that they are 3-3 on the season, giving up 21.2 points per game and compiling 6 interceptions and 18 sacks through the first 6 games. They are near the top of the league in preventing rushing yards at 88.5 per game, and also in the top third in only allowing 235.5 passing yards per game.

The fact that the Titans are favored in this game means a lot, as Tennessee hasn’t beaten the Indianapolis Colts since 2011, when Payton Manning was hurt and Curtis Painter got the start. I love the matchup between the Titans have with Kendall Wright and just about every member of the secondary for the Colts, as Wright and Mariota have developed quite a nice report over the last few games. I expect that Mariota will take advantage of having more time in the pocket than he has had in his entire NFL career on Sunday, and to have a big game statistically. If there are any prop bets out there for Wright and Mariota on sites such as Bovada, take advantage.

At this point in the week, the O/U total is sitting between 47.5 and 48.5, and I have a slight lean to the Over with how these teams have played each other over the last few years. I don’t see any reason why the Titans can’t score 28 points, but I have my doubts with Indianapolis. The Titans are the stronger team at this time though, so my official Week 7 NFL pick will be to back them at home -2.5 points at 5Dimes.

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Free NFL Picks: Titans -2.5Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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