NFL Betting: Patriots vs. Panthers in Week 11

Darin Zank

Thursday, November 14, 2013 7:16 PM GMT

We previewed Monday night's New England-Carolina clash earlier this week, but held off on making a pick on the game until we had a bit more time to handicap it.

Today we offer up that pick on Monday's game, because we don't want to hold SBR Forum readers in suspense any longer.

Patriots-Panthers: The Line

Most NFL betting odds we sampled opened this game with Carolina favored by a point or a point and a half, with the total proffered at anywhere from 42.5 to 44.

As of Thursday AM the Panthers could be found at as low as -1.5, while New England could be gotten at +3 at some shops.

For those out there who think the Patriots might win this game outright a price of +125 was available on the money-line at several sportsbooks.

Patriots-Panthers Preview

New England is 7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS and leads the AFC East by two games over the second-place Jets. If the playoffs started today the Patriots would be the three seed in the AFC.

Carolina is 6-3 both SU and ATS, in second place in the NFC South, a game back of the first-place Saints. If the playoffs started today the Panthers would be the five seed in the NFC.

Last time out New England jumped out to a 14-0 lead over Pittsburgh, allowed the Steelers to tie the game at 24 in the third quarter, then scored four touchdowns in the fourth quarter for a 55-31 victory. The Patriots then had last week off.

Carolina most recently went out to San Francisco and beat the 49ers 10-9, holding them to 151 yards of total offense and carding six sacks.

These two teams last met four seasons ago, when New England beat the Panthers 20-10 up in Foxboro.

Betting Trends

A couple of trends catch our attention for this game; New England is 8-1 ATS the last nine times it's been lined as an underdog, and 9-3 ATS the last 12 times it's played on Monday Night Football. 

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Patriots-Panthers: The Pick

Our pick on this game has less to do with how good New England might be, or how hot Carolina is, or Brady, or Newton, or the running games, or the defenses, anything like that. Sometimes, as un-scientific as this might sound, our picks come down to vibes, or attempts to read teams' bio-rhythms, or the ol' “up one week, down the next” theory.

Carolina has been rolling, and just traveled across the country and beat the defending conference champion 49ers on their home field. A wonderful accomplishment for a team we see heading to the playoffs. But that doesn't mean the Panthers are good enough to be immune to the normal ups and downs of life in the NFL. How many times have we seen a team win a big game on the road, only to come home and lose its next game? Too many to count.

One of the worst things bettors can do is to make judgments based upon on what happened last week. Carolina's victory at San Francisco certainly caught the attention of both the oddsmakers and the betting public, and we love situations like that, because it sets up good “reversal of fortunes” bets for the following week.  

That's why we're going with the Patriots to win this game outright for our free NFL pick.

NFL Pick: Take New England getting +125 on the money-line at SBR Sportsbook.