NFL Betting Odds - Consensus Report Week 9: Who Got it Wrong?

Kevin Stott

Saturday, November 5, 2016 4:44 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 5, 2016 4:44 PM UTC

Sharps seem so dull for backing the Browns, it seemed the Sharps and early money was indeed wise, as in 'wiseguys'.So be a perceived Square for this game and find a 7 and lay it with Dallas, our 'Who Got it Wrong?' NFL pick.

Sunday, November 6, 2016Dallas Cowboy at Cleveland Browns, 4 p.m. ESTOpener: Cowboys -7 Friday Line: Cowboys -7½ 



This Point Spread moved much in the first two days, going from its opening 7½ up to 8 then quickly to 9 on Monday before dropping immediately back to 7½, where it's at Friday—and that’s obviously Sharp money as who the %&#@ else is dropping big money on the Cleveland Browns at 5Dimes on a Tuesday morning? Surely not the Chorizo from the Milwaukee Brewers Sausage Race. And why is this movement perceived as wrong? (On Wednesday, the Consensus had $136K-$50K bet on Cleveland.) Because the Browns (0-8 SU, 2-6 ATS) are simply a bad team and Rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys (+2750 to win Super Bowl) have become a really good team (6-1 SU/ATS).

So who are we to say the Sharps are wrong? We don’t need to as Math can do the talking. Blindly backing Cleveland (2-6 ATS) weekly is insane, as the Roster is never concrete and the Browns have been juggling QBs weekly for years. Right now, Josh McCown (Collarbone) and Rookie Cody Kessler (Concussion) were listed as co-starters up until Thursday but on Friday, Kessler was named Sunday’s starter. But a hurt McCown-Kessler is probably a step up from a potential RGII-Manziel reality on the Browns Depth Chart at the position in all honesty.



Series, Overall Trends, Best Approach & It’s Easy to Fade a 4-14 ATS L18 Team

Fading the worst teams is always a solid betting approach and the Browns are definitely in the bottom 2 teams in the NFL now, going 4-14 ATS its L18 games (22.22%)—2-6 ATS this season and 2-8 ATS their L10 last year—a season in which Cleveland (-80 PD) was outscored by 154 points. The Over is 6-1 the L7 Browns games, 7-1 the L8 vs. team with Winning Record and 5-1 in Cleveland’s L6 games on Grass. Dallas is 0-8 ATS its L8 Week 9 games and 5-14 ATS the L19 November games but 12-2 ATS its L14 on Grass. And with Dallas (+240 to win NFC East, 5Dimes) having W6 ATS and fueled by the fear of an improved NFC East with the Eagles (4-3), Giants (4-3) and Redskins (4-3-1) all still in the NFC East hunt, backing the Cowboys (6/1 to win NFC, 5Dimes) to win by double-digits Sunday at FirstEnergy Stadium (Grass) is the NFL Pick.


Predicted Final Score: Cowboys 27 Browns 13Free NFL Pick: Cowboys -7 Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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