NFL Betting Odds Breakdown for Sunday Night's Giants vs. Eagles

Jason Lake

Thursday, October 9, 2014 2:48 PM GMT

Thursday, Oct. 9, 2014 2:48 PM GMT

The NFC East doesn’t look so bad all of a sudden. Both the Philadelphia Eagles and the New York Giants have winning records as they prepare for Sunday night, with Philly laying three points at home on the NFL odds.

Jason’s Record After Week 5: 19-16 ATS, 5-7-1 Totals

Profit: plus-0.1 units

 

A lot of people would like to forget that 2013 ever happened. Eli Manning, for example. He had his worst season since he was a fresh-faced rookie in 2004 (okay, he’s still fresh-faced), coughing up a league-high 27 interceptions as the New York Giants finished 7-9 SU and ATS. On the other hand, 2013 was a great year for Chip Kelly. His NFL coaching debut was a success, leading the Philadelphia Eagles to the NFC East title at 10-6 (8-8 ATS).

It was a slow start again for the G-Men this year, but after three straight wins, they find themselves back above .500 at 3-2 SU and ATS, one game behind Philadelphia (4-1 SU, 3-2 ATS) for first place in the division. Ah, it’s just like old times. Should be a great game when they meet Sunday night (8:30 p.m. ET, NBC); the Eagles have opened as 3-point home faves on the Week 6 NFL odds board, which is where they sit as we go to press. Our consensus reports show a 50/50 split among bettors with the home side pulling in about two-thirds of the action.

 

Kelce Grammar
Philadelphia might still be in first place, but the advanced stats say the Giants are the best team in the NFC East. Football Outsiders has them ranked No. 8 overall (No. 14 offense, No. 7 defense, No. 23 special teams) on their efficiency charts, with the Eagles trailing at No. 13 overall (No. 22 offense, No. 16 defense, No. 1 special teams).

You read that right: Kelly’s vaunted offense has fallen to the lower half of the table. The air attack is bad enough at No. 19 overall, but the running game has really come unglued at No. 28. As is often the case, we can point the fickle finger of blame at the offensive line, which is missing center Jason Kelce (groin) and LG Evan Mathis (knee) until Week 10, as well as back-up RT Allen Barbre (ankle) for the remainder of the season. Miraculously, the Eagles had their entire starting offensive line intact last year.

 

Catch It Like Beckham
Injuries were a big problem for the Giants in 2013, and they didn’t start the 2014 campaign in the best of health, either. But they’ve gotten many of their players back, and we finally saw the NFL debut of their latest first-round pick, WR Odell Beckham Jr., in last week’s 30-20 victory over the Atlanta Falcons (+4 away). Beckham was targeted five times and made four catches, including the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter.

Giants fans are also very pleased with this year’s new running back. Rashad Jennings (4.4 yards per carry) has picked up right where he left off after his breakthrough 2013 season with the Oakland Raiders, where he filled in for the injured Darren McFadden and rumbled for 4.5 yards per carry. However, Jennings sprained his left knee against Atlanta and is expected to sit out until Week 9, leaving rookie Andre Williams (3.1 yards per carry) to do the heavy lifting on Sunday.

That might be the only justification for the Eagles laying three points in this matchup. Three points is the ballpark figure for home-field advantage in the NFL, although we tend to use 2.5 points these days. But it’s the Giants who rank higher in efficiency and have the “momentum” of three straight wins. Pro Football Reference concurs that New York (plus-5.8 SRS) is the best team in the division, not Philadelphia (minus-0.9 SRS). This looks like a good spot for Big Blue to grab some green before the NFL betting market catches up.

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