NFL Betting: Most Surprising Opening Lines That Look Odd For NFL Week 10 

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Kevin Stott

Monday, November 6, 2017 1:20 PM GMT

Monday, Nov. 6, 2017 1:20 PM GMT

NFL Week 10 Sees Bears Favored Over Pack For First Time in 9 Years! As starting QB injuries take their tolls and anticipated SU Records just don’t look the way Head Coaches, linemakers or the betting public thought they would before the 2017 Regular Season kicked off, we’re starting to see some weird-looking Opening Point Spreads in the NFL and Week 10 is no exception.

Mitch Trubisky and the Bears opened as 3-point chalks over Green Bay in the first time Chicago has been favored over the Packers since 2008. Let’s take a look at that classic rivalry as well as three other games on the coming pro football slate, try to explain why these odd-looking numbers are the way they are and then offer up a pair of picks where it looks like there may be a perceived betting advantage. 

NFL Week 10—Thursday, November 9, 2017 
Seattle Seahawks -6½ -105 at Arizona Cardinals (The Greek) 

Why it May Look Odd: This NFC West Thursday Night Football game and Week 9 opener (NFLN, NBC, AMZN, 8:25 pm ET/5:25 pm PT) usually matters much in the NFC Playoff race and has lately been a pivotal schedule date for 5th-year HC Bruce Arians (37-36-1 ATS) and the host Cardinals (4-4 SU, 2-6 ATS), but with starting QB Carson Palmer (Broken Left Arm) and RB David Johnson (Wrist) both shelved and on the Injured Reserve List and backup Drew Stanton in at QB, the 2017 season may be baked for Larry Fitzgerald and Arizona if they fall a game below .500 once again. But still, (Seahawks minus) 6½ (-105, The Greek) seems a bit heavy and looks odd for a game being played in Glendale—the most 8th-year HC Pete Carroll (76-61-3 ATS) and Seattle (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) has been favored at UoP Stadium (Grass) in the L10 seasons has been 9 (2014) and Russell Wilson (19-13 ATS vs NFC West) and the visiting Seahawks couldn’t even muster a TD in a Baseball-like 6-6 OT Sunday Night Football game in the Sonoran Desert in Week 1 last season. We all aged that night. 

The reason this is almost a TD spread now is obvious, with Seattle being in a groove until Week 9 and thinking of some Homefield Advantage in a theoretical Playoff game in January and Arizona hurting and down. A look at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook 2017 NFL Games of the Year point spread—released in the Summer—we see the Seahawks opened up as slight 2½-point chalks, so, there has been at least a 4-point difference and fairly strange-looking number for a 2017 game in suburban Phoenix for Adrian Peterson and a Cardinals team suddenly feeling a little stronger after beating San Francisco and being .500 now. 

In Week 9 action, Arizona defeated the 49ers in San Francisco, 20-10 to get back that psychological .500 mark and while Seattle hosted Washington and lost late, 17-14 to Kirk Cousins and the Redskins (SEA -8, 44) as schizophrenic Seattle fell behind the winning Rams in the NFC West race and will quickly now inject the words “Wild Card” back into their vocabularies. Last year, Richard Sherman, Bobby Wagner and the Seahawks—who traded for Texans talented OL Duane Brown last week—went 0-5 ATS as Road Favorites and are 1-0 ATS this 2017 NFL Regular Season in that ATS role (NYG), having been 2½-point Dogs in all 3 of its other Road games (GB, TEN, RAMS). This number may look a bit weird now, but it’s spot on for everything that’s transpired from September to now. Lean Under when the Total is up for your NFL picks

 Sunday, November 12, 2017 
Minnesota Vikings -2½ -110 at Washington Redskins (Sportsbook.ag) 

Why it May Look Odd: Because these two teams have been pretty equal in recent years and despite the Vikings nice little surge this season, this game should probably be no higher than a PK game or so. But toss in realities like the Redskins coming off a game Sunday(a big late Win in Seattle) and the long Travel involved in Week 9 for them and Minnesota enjoying their Bye Week and coming in on a rejuvenating and season-long 11 Days of Rest, and we get the perception this number looks “odd” or that Redskins QB Kirk Cousins might be injured or something. He’s not, but with an Injury List as long as a small country Telephone Book heading to Seattle to play the Seahawks in Week 9, this is also a pretty beat up team with guys like WR Jamison Crowder, LB Zach Brown, TE Jordan Reed, S DeAngelo Hall and K Justin Hopkins all on the mend. But the simple truth is these two are fighting for NFC Playoff spots, and with Minnesota heading in at 6-2 SU and on top of the NFC North and Washington coming in 4-5 SU and still hanging on for dear life, this game means much more to the hosts here and a Loss may actually mean it will already be “Wait Until Next year” time for the poor Skins who seem to improve a little every season but stay in the same NFC East quicksand spot. 

Another reason for the number being where it is here, besides the Reputations, Records and Rest, is how well Everson Griffen and the Vikings Defense has played so far this 20117 NFL Regular Season. Minnesota has allowed just 135 points in their 8 games (16.9 ppg, #3 NFL) in the first half of the season and The New Wave Purple People Eaters have allowed just 282.1 ypg (#3) NFL but only have a +2 TO Margin (Takeaways/Giveaways) heading in./ Fourth-year Head Coach Mike Zimmer (33-16 ATS) and the Vikings have had the fortune of playing the lovable-loser Browns in London and the Buccaneers and Lions and Aaron Rodgers-less Packers (+4 TO) all at Home. Minnesota (22/1 to win Super Bowl, Heritage) was 2-2 ATS as a Road Favorite in 2016 and the problem here comes in the Motivation category with the host Redskins (150/1 to win Super Bowl, 5Dimes) in a position where they will need the Win so much more with their season teetering dangerously close on the edge and that point where players may give 80% as opposed to 100% effort on the gridiron. 

 

Sunday, November 12, 2017 
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears -3 (Sportsbetting.ag) 

Why it May Look Odd: Rookie QB Mitch Trubisky and the Bears favored over the Packers? Say what? The last time Da Bears were favored over the Cheeseheads was way back in 2008 when Chicago was a 4-point Home Favorite over Green Bay in Week 16—the Pack covered by 1 point in a 20-17 Loss in the Windy City—so you know something’s up (Aaron Rodgers is out) when you see Chicago with a minus by its name against its rivals. This season, this Week 10 game on Sunday afternoon (FOX, DTV 710, 1 pm ET/10 am PT) from historic Soldier Field (Grass) in Chicago will be a big game for both sides, with the Bears (3-5 SU) being able to stay in the Postseason hunt by defeating the Packers (4-3 SU) and pulling them closer to the Lions (3-4 SU) in the division. Even with the Vikings at 6-2 and in 1st place and the Bears at 3-5 and in last place, it seems The Division Formerly Known As The NFC Central may have a long way to go before the Black-and-Blue concrete settles. 

The Trends in this series show the Packers (+6,075 to win Super Bowl, Pinnacle) to be a profitable 11-3 ATS the L14 after a 35-14 Packers curb-stomping in Green Bay back in Week 5 this season (GB -7½, 44) and the Cheeseheads are 5-1 ATS the L6 in Chicago. The Packers and the Bears will both come into this game well-rested with both coming off of their Bye Weeks with Chicago losing at the Saints, 20-12 in Week 8 (NO -7½, 46) while Ha-Ha Clinton Dix and Green Bay will face Detroit tonight on Monday Night Football (ESPN, 8:30 pm ET/5:30 pm PT; DET -2, 43½, YouWager) in game where one will be trying to reach .500 (Detroit) while the other (Green Bay) tries to avoid it and what will be a devastating Loss for whomever incurs it. 

 

Sunday, November 12, 2017 
New Orleans Saints -2 -105 at Buffalo Bills (Pinnacle) 

Why it May Look Odd: Can’t Tyrod Taylor (1,628 Passing yards, 10 TDs, 95.8 RAT) and the Bills get any respect? Not from the linemakers when Drew Brees (1,951 Passing yards, 11 TDs, 101.7 RAT into Sunday) are playing so well (W6), even with the Saints having to Travel 1,237 miles and lose an Hour on their Who Dat Body Clocks (CST to EST) and play in a potentially chilly, outdoor environment in Buffalo. This Week 10 game from New Era Field (A-Turf Titan) in Orchard Park, NY Sunday will be more important to the 1st-year HC Sean McDermott and the Bills (+7,531 to win Super Bowl, Pinnacle) with Buffalo sitting at 5-3 SU and chasing Tom Brady and the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots (6-2 SU) in the AFC East race. 

Solid lean to visitors New Orleans (20/1 to win Super Bowl, Bovada) here as despite the great Defensive start, the Bills looked very Bills-like, getting humbled by the New York Jets, 34-21 on Thursday Night Football at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, NJ in Week 8 in a result which had to dent the Bills Confidence as well as they were playing. Linemakers have made the Total in this game 48½. The Trends show New Orleans is 4-0 ATS the L4 vs. LeSean McCoy and Buffalo although these two haven’t met since 2013 (NO won 35-17 as 10-point Home Favorites and with that in mind and the Saints Defense also playing well, the pick here is New Orleans. 

Free NFL Picks: Packers +3 over Bears & Saints -1 -120 over Bills 
Best Lines Available: Sports Betting AG

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