The 2020 NFL season is still over one month away but that won’t stop us from looking for value picks. Franchises looked poised to play this year despite the COVID concerns, even if that means games are played without fans in attendance. We know we’ll be betting regardless of whether we’re watching from home or in the stands.
We’ve scoured the best betting sites to find the best NFL value bets for the 2020 season. The offseason has led to some clearly improved rosters and others that have us scratching our heads. Now is the time to get the best return with our future picks.
Don’t wait on these lines, attack now!
Deshaun Watson MVP
Overstating the number of factors that play into award winners is hard to do. Preseason expectations for the team and player are massive, and the surrounding cast and situation, or at least the perception of them, continues to fuel the narratives that spur candidates. The Houston Texans have continually been the loser of trades in the media’s mind, but there’s also tremendous respect for Deshaun Watson as a playmaking star.
Looking for the best value as an underdog MVP pick, Watson still has a good set of receivers, and there’s been some reported interest between Houston and Antonio Brown. Giving Watson a receiving crew of Brown, Kenny Stills, Brandin Cooks, Will Fuller, and Randall Cobb would be an incredible bunch. Even without Brown, some are underestimating how good Stills and Cooks are.
The biggest concern with the Texans is their ability to win enough for Watson to be considered. The AFC South will be highly competitive, and no one expects Houston to win the division. If they’re able to, Watson will become a massive value and potential favorite because of the team expectations.
Free NFL pick:
Comeback Player of the Year
The Comeback Player of the Year award is a difficult one to predict because the terms are so loose. Usually the winner is a quarterback coming off injury, and the list of real candidates this year is slim. For me, this is a three-way race between Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, and Matthew Stafford.
Newton and Roethlisberger are at similar values at +300, while Stafford is at a paltry +750. Roethlisberger is the safer health risk over Newton if you’re looking at favorites. And as much as I like Newton, he’ll have to prove his health and his fit within Josh McDaniels‘ system, while we can be more confident in what Stafford will produce. Even Roethlisberger has major question marks, including how he’ll handle a lesser supporting cast and if his interception rate will continue climbing.
Stafford is coming off his best statistical season yet in terms of producing touchdowns and reducing interceptions. His surrounding cast is solid enough to propel this to a top-eight offense, and Stafford’s always been a numbers producer. He’s a great value that we should jump on now.
Free NFL pick:
Joe Burrow Rookie of the Year
Some bets make too much sense, and quite frankly I’m shocked Joe Burrow has any value attached to his name. Most of the offensive playmakers ended up in bad situations to put up substantial numbers, with Burrow’s former teammate Clyde Edwards-Helaire as a notable exception. But betting on a running back is just a hedge in case Burrow gets hurt or is horribly bad.
Burrow has the skill set to flourish early in his career. Though I’m skeptical of Zac Taylor long-term, he has a plethora of offensive weapons to work with and help Burrow stack records. I fully expect him to break the rookie passing touchdown record and rival 4,000 yards based on this team’s need to put up points in a tough division.
If you want more of a return then look at only CEH as a real alternative, but getting 2.5 dollars per dollar bet is fantastic right now on Burrow.
Free NFL pick:
NFC Conference Winner
It’s hard for me to understand how the Philadelphia Eagles are so far behind similar NFC contenders to represent the conference in the Super Bowl. I’m not a big Carson Wentz fan, but there’s tremendous value for a deep roster that’s restocked with some playmakers and obviously Darius Slay at cornerback. This conference looks pretty open.
Dallas lost Byron Jones and hired a mediocre head coach in Mike McCarthy, despite how much I like the rest of their roster. New Orleans has a bit of a stale roster and Drew Brees looked old at the end of 2019. Both Seattle and Tampa Bay have potentially major issues in their secondaries as well, and their value is only half as good as the Eagles’.
I still think Doug Pederson can put together an impressive offense even if I didn’t love their moves at receiver. Maybe they sign Antonio Brown, or can get more out of J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. If they do, the Eagles will have been one of the best value plays of the year.
Free NFL pick:
Coach of the Year
I believe in this Tampa Bay team as a real NFC contender. While their defense has much to prove and reproduce from the end of 2019, their offense is loaded and primed for fireworks. This team should win 10 games and have the veteran leadership needed to advance deep in the playoffs. Bruce Arians will benefit from somewhat lowered expectations in the media and Vegas if this happens.
Trying to guess which team will explode out of nowhere to get 10 wins is a tough one to play. Maybe Buffalo is more dominant than expected in the AFC East, or Cleveland finally plays to their potential, or Denver breaks out with Drew Lock, as examples. Those are tough games to play. I’d rather look at what’s more feasible for a team entering the year with a justifiably high profile. The Buccaneers will get tons of attention this season, and Arians will reap rewards if they execute.
Free NFL pick: