NFL Betting - Last-Minute Picks Include Saints & Jets In Week 9

Jay Pryce

Saturday, November 5, 2016 8:41 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 5, 2016 8:41 PM UTC

The Saints, Jets, and Panthers offer up some last-minute value in our Week 9 NFL picks. Get the plays with analysis here from expert capper Jay Pryce.

 Saints (-4) vs 49ers

Analysis: The 49ers don’t have the weapons to slow down, nor keep up with Drew Brees and the Saints offense. San Francisco is 8-15 ATS since the start of 2015, giving up 26.3 points per game. This number jumps up 5 points to 31.5 against in 11 matchups versus pass-efficient opponents averaging 6.8 yards or better per attempt like the Saints. New Orleans puts up 7.4 this season, sixth best in the NFL. Its 28.7 points per game rank second.

San Francisco is a run-first team. Its 31.4 carries per game rank second in the league behind Dallas. Since 2015, New Orleans’ defense is much better against a run-heavy offense, yielding 26.5 points per game to teams that carry the ball the league average (26) or more. Squaring off against more pass-centric teams, it yields 32.7 per contest. New Orleans wins by two scores.

Free College Football Pick: Saints -4Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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 Jets vs Dolphins (-4)

Analysis: The Jets are playing nearly 12 points worst this season from last with a -7.3 average margin of victory in 2016 (4.6 in 2015). The decrease is attributed to poor play on both sides of the ball. Nonetheless, one area of the game New York excels is stopping the run, countering Miami’s key component for offensive production. The Jets 3.3 yards per carry are tied with the Panthers and Packers as most efficient in the NFL.

Miami’s 5.0 yards per carry is second to the Bills (5.5) in effectiveness, fueled by Jay Ajayi eclipsing 200 rushing yards in each of the last two games. A third consecutive effort is likely out of the question.

The Dolphins are just 9-14 SU since the start of last season. Over half of their wins (5) have come when rushing the ball at 5.1 yards per carry or better in a game. The Jets D has allowed this to happen just twice since head coach Todd Bowles took over. Since 2015, the Dolphins score 16.7 points per contest in six games featuring defenses holding teams to 3.75 yards per carry or less. They post 21.4 points per game against teams allowing more. The Jets will have to conjure up some points themselves, but don't expect Miami to run away with a win. Jets keep it close and are a live dog at a good price.

Free College Football Pick: Jets +4Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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 Panthers (-3) vs Rams

Analysis: Carolina’s defense looked its former self after the bye week last Sunday, holding the Cardinals to 20 points, and sacking quarterback Carson Palmer a career-high 8 times. It was just the second time all season the unit held an opponent below their projected team total. Losing Josh Norman in the secondary hurt—the Panthers are gashed for 286.9 passing yards per game.

L.A.’s aerial attack is average at best, and prone to turnovers. It’s the perfect opponent for the Panthers to carry over their confidence-building effort from last week. The Rams can’t rush the ball either, running back Todd Gurley averaging a paltry 3.0 yards per attempt. They will be forced into a one-dimensional attack, the short-passing game snuffed out by Carolina’s dynamic linebackers.

The Rams defense will keep the game close, but Cam and company rule at the end of the day and cover the field-goal spread.

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Free College Football Pick: Panthers +3Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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