NFL Betting - Jacksonville Jaguars vs Detroit Lions Odds & Free Picks

Detroit Lions players in field

Tuesday, November 15, 2016 8:14 PM GMT

Detroit Lions top the NFC North without even playing a game in week 10! Can they underscore top spot when they take on the Jaguars this week? Here’s a mini-betting preview complete with NFL picks.

 

  

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Detroit Lions  

 

Point Spread Value

Lions open on the NFL odds board as the considerable home chalk, laying anywhere from -6.5 to -7 to the Jaguars. Consider the Lions are just 5-4 SU and ATS with a -0.1 losing margin on average and +0.7 differential versus the spread the NFL line does look a touch generous. It’s a function of the opponent though more so than anything the Lions have done thus far in the season. Jaguars strike a woeful pose with a 2-7 SU and 4-5-0 ATS mark, a run of form that includes a -7.2 losing margin on average and -5.5 differential versus the spread. By those stats, the market looks to be spot on, don’t you think?


Free NFL Pick: Lions -6.5 (-105)

Best Line Offered: at Bodog

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The Survivor

Without even touching a pigskin, Lions emerge in first place in the NFC North thanks to the entire field dropping games in week 10. The Packers were stunned by the Titans, the Vikings were edged by the Redskins and the Bears were decimated by the Bucs. What a difference midseason makes, huh. Lions are 5-4 SU, a mark that includes a 3-1 SU record at home with a 1.5 winning margin on average and + 0.5 differential versus the spread at home. Most recently, they won three on the trot at Ford Field defeating Philadelphia, Los Angeles, and Washington. On the flip side, the Jaguars are in a whole lot of trouble, propping up the AFC South with a 2-7-0 SU record which includes a 1-3 SU record on their travels. By and large, NFL betting experts agree Blake Bortles has regressed in his third season – as a starting quarterback you don’t want Hacky Sack moments making the week’s highlight reel! Almost as bad as the glorious butt fumble. Given the sum of their parts, the Jaguars should be much better than they are. Goes to show, games aren’t played on paper but on the field. You’re only as good as your record says you are, so they say. Lions should win this game handily, take that into account fro your week 11 NFL picks.

 

Free NFL Pick: Lions -255

Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Game Total

Predicting the total for this game is a bit tricky. As mentioned above, Blake Bortles has regressed this season. Looking at the Jaguars they are averaging around 19.33 points scored per game but a lot of those are coming in garbage time when the game is well out of reach. Defense is leaking a detrimental 26.6 points per game. All together they are 6-3-0 in OVER betting this season but for all the wrong reasons. Lions are 4-5-0 in O/U betting but 2-2-0 in O/U betting at Ford Field. Three out of the four games that cracked the OVER featured a Lions win, which suggests they are cracking the total for the right reasons behind an offense that is clicking.

 

Free NFL Pick: Over 47 (-110)

Best Line Offered: at WilliamHill

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