Eddie Lacy has been the talk of the fantasy community as a bounce-back candidate this season. Lacy’s NFL Odds for rushing yards set at 1050.5, which would make him the lowest running back on their season special props for the 2016 season. Can we expect him to have value with the over?
Eddie Lacy got a lot of criticism last season due to his weight. He looked slow running through holes and the combination of size and elusiveness turned into more size and less agility in 2015. He got benched at times last season in favor of James Starks and he finished the year with career-lows of 758 yards on 187 carries. That’s still an average of 4.1 carries, but he had only three touchdowns in 15 games.
However all the reports out of Lacy’s camp this offseason have been positive. He looks slimmed down and trimmed physically, not out of shape and with somewhat of a beer-belly. Lacy reportedly has lost 15-20 pounds and for a guy who was every bit of 240-250 pounds last season, this is great news for the Packers’ running game.
Lacy had two very good seasons in the NFL averaging 4.4 yards per carry and posting over 1100 yards in each of them. However, with Jordy Nelson coming back the Packers may have one of the better passing games in the NFL and Lacy will ultimately benefit from that with another 30-40 targets through the air. The real question is will Lacy get back to 250 carries. If he can do that the over for this prop should be a really good play.
Mike McCarty has already said he is done talking about Lacy’s weight and a good way to do that will be to give him 18 carries per game. Then he will only be talking about how good or bad he is playing.
However, with the weight-loss, Lacy seems like one of the better bounce-back candidates in the entire league. The Packers’ offensive line is still a great duel-threat unit for run and pass blocking and if Lacy’s speed and elusiveness returns after a year off, this prop is easily going over.
The average yards projection for Lacy in the three projections sites I use have him coming in around 1000 yards, but assuming he gets even just 16 carries per game over a span of just 15 games, that’s still 240 carries. If he can average just 4.4 yards per carry this season the over is the way to go.
The problem is if Aaron Rodgers gets pass happy when calling an audible at the line of scrimmage. With Nelson coming back, Richard Rodgers blossoming and Randall Cobb still dominating, the Packers may have the best trio of receiving options in the entire league.
This could leave Lacy on the lower end of 200 carries and not the middle, which is absolutely needed to cash the over in this one with NFL odds at -120. I still think he gets 250 carries though, so add the over to your NFL Picks this offseason.
Free NFL Pick: Over 1050.5 -120
Best Line Offered: at Bet365