NFL Betting: Identifying Early Sharp-Public Futures Book Action

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, August 2, 2016 8:28 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 2, 2016 8:28 PM UTC

The NFL Regular Season Season Team Win Total market has been open for some time and with around a month to go before the season kicks off, both Sharps and the General Public have been betting into these numbers. Let’s look at the current and opening lines, and make a couple of early-August picks.

Public Backing Cardinals, Patriots Overs in Season Team Win Total Market
With the start of the NFL’s 97th Regular Season just six weeks away on Thursday, Sept. 8 with the annual NFL Kickoff Game from Sports Authority Field in Denver between the Broncos and Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers in a rematch of Super Bowl 50 (NBC, 8:30 p.m. EDT/5:30 p.m. PDT; Odds: CAR -1½ -125, 42½, 5Dimes), now is a good time to refresh and re-examine the Season Team Win Total odds and see who the General Public and the Sharps have been betting on to date. 

And as expected, the NFL’s more popular teams who actually have a chance of making it to Super Bowl LI on Sunday, Feb. 6 at NRG Stadium in Houston (FOX; Odds: ,AFC PK -120, Bovada) are the teams which have seen the bulk of the money at the betting windows this Spring and Summer. “On five of the six ‘Power Teams’—Green Bay, New England, Seattle, Arizona, Carolina and Pittsburgh—we have at least 10 times the tickets written on the Over including Arizona who we have 18 tickets written on the Over and just 7 tickets written on the Under,” said Matthew Holt, Vice President of Business Development at CG Analytics on the FIRST PREVIEW radio show on Monday.

“The fact we have zero Wiseguys on the (Arizona Season Team Win Totals) Under and 7 on the Over is indicative of what kind of what everyone’s general feel is of the Arizona team,” added Holt who also indicated CG Technology has received its fair share of General Public money on the New England Patriots Regular Season Team Win Total Over. So the General Public has been pretty high on QB Carson Palmer (34-45-2 ATS at Home) and the Cardinals (12/1 to win Super Bowl LI, Bovada) in the Regular Season Team Totals Market (9½o -190, Pinnacle) but to get to 10 Wins and reward Over backers in this particular marketplace, Arizona (+140 to win NFC West, GTBets) has to deal with Russell Wilson and the Defense-minded Seattle Seahawks (-140 to win NFC West, GTBets) twice on the 16-game schedule as well as division-mates, the Los Angeles Rams (+1,000 to win NFC West, GTBets) and the San Francisco 49ers (+3,000 to win NFC West, GTBets) twice apiece, both at Home at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale as well as in California.

Fourth-year Head Coach Bruce Arians (30-20-1 ATS) and the Cardinals open at Home against the New England Patriots (-200 to win AFC East, GTBets) in Week 1, host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2, head to Buffalo to play the Bills in Week 3, face the Rams in suburban Phoenix in Week 4 (AZ -6½, NFL Games of the Year, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), are at San Francisco in Week 5, play the New York Jets in Week 6 (AZ -6, NFL Games of the Year, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), are vs. the Seahawks in Glendale in Week 7 (AZ -1½, NFL Games of the Year, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), lock horns with Cam Newton and the defending NFC champion Carolina Panthers in Week 8 (CAR -3 -120, NFL Games of the Year, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), host the 49ers in Arizona in Week 10, are at the Minnesota Vikings in Week 11 at the new US Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, are at the Atlanta Falcons in Week 12, host the Washington Redskins in Week 13, head to Miami to play the Dolphins in Week 14, host vs. Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints in Week 15, are at Seattle in Week 16 (SEA -6½, 2016-17 NFL Games of the Year, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) and then wrap up the Regular season slate against the Rams in their new home in Los Angeles in Week 17 on New Year’s Day. So six pretty tough games including a long trip to Buffalo in what may end up ultimately being the biggest game in terms of the Regular Season Team Win Total market (10 Over -130, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook).


Wiseguys Liking Raiders Over, Steelers, Broncos, Eagles, Colts, Pats, 49ers Unders Heading Into Season
With the General Public gobbling up some Team Total Wins Over action on the Cardinals, Seahawks, Panthers, Packers and Patriots, there is one popular team which Holt says has received decent Under action at the betting windows. “The one ‘Power Six’ team we’ve taken a lot of Under (Season Team Win Totals) from the Sharpest players is the Steelers at 10½ wins,” Holt said, adding that the General Public has been betting New England Over with the Wiseguys waiting with bated breath to glom up some Patriots Under action when the time is right. “We’ve seen some Sharp buyback [on the Patriots] from some of the smarter players,” he said. And one place where Holt said the Wiseguys and the General Public disagreed was on two Florida teams—the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Holt indicated both opened up at 6 Regular Season Wins with the Jaguars now up to 7½ at CGT, “so the value’s well gone,” Holt added. 

And recent action at sportsbooks has seem some perceived Wiseguy money come in on the Oakland Raiders Over (8½ Over -110, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook), as well as Denver Broncos Under (9½ Under -163, Pinnacle), the Philadelphia Eagles Under (9½ Under -163, Pinnacle), the San Francisco 49ers Under 6 (down to 5½, Pinnacle), the Indianapolis Colts (9½ Under -179, Pinnacle) and Ben Roethlisberger (52-41-1 ATS at Home) and the Pittsburgh Steelers (9½ Under -163, Pinnacle) who have to deal with an Injury to WR Antonio Bryant as well as a 4-game suspension to start the Regular Season to starting RB Le’Veon Bell (113 rushes, 556 yards, 3 TDs), although the 24-year-old Michigan State product will appeal the suspension and is confident he will beat it. Here are the updated Regular Season Team Win Totals fresh from over at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook:

NFL 2016/17 Regular Season Team Win Totals
Carolina Panthers 10½ Over -120
Green Bay Packers 10½ Over -170
New England Patriots 10½ Over -130
Pittsburgh Steelers 10½ Under -120
Seattle Seahawks 10½ Over -130
Arizona Cardinals 10 Over -130
Minnesota Vikings 9½ Over -130
Cincinnati Bengals 9½ Over -13
Denver Broncos 9½ Under -150
Dallas Cowboys 9 Over -120
Kansas City Chiefs 9½ Over -135
Indianapolis Colts 9 Over -130
Houston Texans 8½ Under -120
Baltimore Ravens 8½ Under -130
Oakland Raiders 8½ Over -110
Buffalo Bills 8 Over -120
New York Jets 8 Under -150
New York Giants 8 Over -130
Los Angeles Rams 7½ Under -160
Chicago Bears 7½ Under -130
Philadelphia Eagles 7 Under -135
Washington Redskins 7 Over -150
Atlanta Falcons 7 Over -140
Detroit Lions 7 Over -125
Jacksonville Jaguars 7½ Over -120
Miami Dolphins 7 Over -120
New Orleans Saints 7 Over -120
San Diego Chargers 7 Over -140
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 Over -120
Tennessee Titans 5½ Over -160
San Francisco 49ers 5½ Over -120
Cleveland Browns 4½ Over -140

NFL REGULAR SEASON TEAM WIN TOTAL PICKS: Seattle Seahawks Over 10½ -130, Dallas Cowboys Under 9 Even, Oakland Raiders Under 8½ -110, Jacksonville Jaguars Under 7½ Even, Cleveland Browns Under 4½ +120 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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