NFL Betting - Identifying Early Sharp Action In Week 11

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, November 15, 2016 6:15 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2016 6:15 PM UTC

The sharps moved numbers this week but only two lines moved more than a point off the opener in the first 24 hours. Let’s micro-analyze these two games and determine if this early line movement at sportsbooks is or isn’t perceived “smart money.”


Philadelphia Eagles vs Seattle Seahawks

Open: Seahawks -4½ -110, Sunday (BetOnline)
Tuesday Morning: Seahawks -6½ -105 (Heritage)

This NFL Week 11 game from CenturyLink Field (FieldTurf) in Seattle on Sunday afternoon (CBS, DTV 715) has risen as high as 2 points already from sharp action and after watching the Seahawks (6-2-1 SU, 4-4-1 ATS) repatriate New England in Foxborough on SNF, it’s easy to see why, especially with Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin continuing to be the NFL’s #1 QB-WR duo while Eagles (17.8 ppg, Tied #3 NFL) QB Carson Wentz has been making some questionable Rookie decisions.

Stopping Darren Sproles will be a priority for Seattle’s Defense (17.6 ppg, #2 NFL) in this NFC matchup and the home-field advantage should loom large with Philadelphia having to fly 2,800 miles and losing 3 body clock hours. Early on Tuesday, Consensus—mouse over the word “OPENER” on the NFL odds board to see consensus percentages showing how many bettors are on each side—numbers saw 63%-37% on Seattle.

With Wilson (28-14-3 Home), the Seahawks have the QB edge and Seattle is 7-3 ATS L10 and 4-1 ATS L5 vs. the Eagles but HC Pete Carroll (63-44-43 ATS Home) and the Seattle is 1-3 the L4 in the Emerald City against Philadelphia (80/1 to win Super Bowl, BookMaker). A surprise for the Seahawks has been RB Christine Michael (Hamstring), a Texas A&M product with 469 Rushing yards, 6 TDs and 27 First Downs for an evolving Seattle Offense which ranks 30th in Rushing (77.7 ypg) and could get Thomas Rawls back here. Best to use Seattle in Teasers or Moneyline parlays


Free NFL Picks: Use in Teasers, M/L Parlays

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Houston Texans vs Oakland Raiders

Open: Raiders -4½ -115, Sunday (BetOnline)
Tuesday Morning: Raiders -6½ -110 (Intertops)

The Raiders (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) have been a popular Sharp team since early summer when Sharps hammered the Silver and Black in the Futures Book and here it’s a matter of getting in first, even though all of Oakland’s ATS Losses have been at Home (1-3 ATS). Brock Osweiler (49.5 QBR, #29 NFL) and the Texans (6-3 SU, 5-3 ATS) are a very deceptive team, having scored only 46 points in 4 Road games—and more than half of those in a 24-21 win at Jacksonville in Week 10. And with Derek Carr (66.6 QBR, #12 NFL), Amari Cooper Michael Crabtree and Latavius Murray, Oakland has some talent. Like the Seahawks, the Raiders are probably best employed in Teasers or Moneyline Parlays. This could approach 7 by Monday. 

 Free NFL Picks: Use in Teasers, M/L Parlays

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