By now, you all know that Tom Brady has been suspended by the NFL. Like it or not, he’s gone for 4 games – maybe less if he wins an appeal. Let’s take a look how this has an impact on the NFL odds.
How We Know They Cheated
Well, there's the Ted Wells report, all sorts of texts that look pretty bad on Brady and then the lack of a rebuttal or explanation by him. The simplest way to know that anyone cheated or is lying is that they aren’t the ones coming out screaming the loudest. If Brady was truly innocent, he’d be the one talking right now; not his agent Don Yee, not his boss Robert Kraft and not his dad. All of those guys will always defend him. If Brady was innocent, he wouldn’t pretend like he hasn’t read the report and he wouldn’t be in hiding, getting lawyered up. And beyond that, if the Patriots (aka Bill Belichick) truly weren’t involved, how come they aren’t firing the two deflators? Instead, they are only suspending the duo.
In the end, the cheating infringement is so minor and it probably had no impact on the AFC Championship Game. Whether this was going on much beyond that game and for how long is another question, but the infraction seems so minor. However, all of the lying and the deceit afterwards is making this much worse.
How Does This Affect The AFC East Futures?
Probably not a lot. Let’s face it: the Patriots were 2-2 after four games last season and still rolled to another division title. There’s a good chance they’ll be 2-2 again after four games this season with Jimmy Garoppolo starting. The questions here really surround the other three teams in the division. With Matt Cassel at quarterback, it’s still hard to have faith in the Buffalo Bills. And while the Miami Dolphins could take that next step, we’ve seen time and time again that they just aren’t THAT team in the Ryan Tannehill-Joe Philbin era. And the New York Jets are still at least a year away.
The Patriots should be able to get back on track once Brady is back and don’t be surprised if this team plays with a vengeance once he returns. They’ll start off with the Colts, so don’t be surprised if they’re jacked to get that win. Then they have three home games against the Jets, Dolphins and Redskins. That should equate to three wins. Then they’re at the New York Giants, home to the Buffalo Bills, at the Denver Broncos, home to the Philadelphia Eagles, at the Houston Texans and home to the Tennessee Titans. That should be another 4-2 – or maybe even 5-1 stretch. That’s already nine or 10 wins. Based on that, this team should still win the division.
Patriots Regular Season Win Total
The Patriots regular season win total has dropped by about a half-game in most places but I’d rather stay away. I don’t have a strong read on it. My lean is that if it’s right on 10, then they probably push or go over. However, Garoppolo is a wildcard and so are the first four weeks. That being the case, I’d rather stay away.
Regular Season Win Totals Of Opponents
I think the real NFL odds value here lies with the win totals for the Patriots opponents. If you like the Pittsburgh Steelers, Buffalo Bills or Dallas Cowboys, now all of the sudden you go from what would being a potential loss to a likely win. That might be enough to swap you to add the over as your NFL pick on regular season wins with the Steelers, Bills or Cowboys.