NFL Betting: Have the Green Bay Packers Already Peaked in 2015?

Jason Lake

Tuesday, October 20, 2015 12:57 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 20, 2015 12:57 PM UTC

For the first time this season, the Green Bay Packers have failed to beat the football odds. Is it time to jump off the cheese wagon? Or does Green Bay have staying power?

Jason's 2015 record as of Oct. 18: 21-14 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 13-23 Total

It's been a wild ride so far in the National Football League, but through the first five weeks, at least the Green Bay Packers were safe in the eye of the storm. The Packers covered all their games as the favorites, even as the chalk kept piling up like snow on the frozen tundra... well, you get the idea. Green Bay was the gift that kept on giving.

Until now. The Packers finally tripped over the NFL odds this past Sunday; they beat the San Diego Chargers 27-20, but it was the Chargers cashing in as 10.5-point road faves. Glad to see another one of our BeeVee winners getting the job done. That win leaves Green Bay at 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS going into the bye week. So here's the question: Have we reached peak cheese?

Greed Is Gouda
As we said in our preview of the public action for Week 7, every bubble has to burst sometime. The spread on Green Bay kept on expanding and expanding for five straight weeks before it finally got too big to manage. Let's take a closer look at what the Packers have accomplished up to now.

Week 1: Packers 31, Bears 23 (GB –6)
Week 2: Seahawks 17, Packers 27 (GB –3.5)
Week 3: Chiefs 28, Packers 38 (GB –4.5)
Week 4: Packers 17, 49ers 3 (GB –7.5)
Week 5: Rams 10, Packers 24 (GB –8.5)
Week 6: Chargers 20, Packers 27 (SD +10.5)

You can't fault the Packers for winning all their games, but it's not like they've been up against the best and the brightest the NFL has to offer. The only opponent on this list that's in the top half of the DVOA charts at Football Outsiders (through Week 5) is Seattle, where safety Kam Chancellor was still holding out at the time. The Niners are the worst team in the league according to efficiency, and the Packers only scored 17 points against them. Big whoop.

When Push Comes to Chevre
While Green Bay's chalk pile has kept on growing, the sharps have been doing their best to exploit the marketplace. That so-so performance against San Fran was enough to make the Rams a sharp NFL pick for Week 5; a dip into our archive of expanded consensus reports shows 87 percent of the action was on St. Louis, leaving the average bet on Green Bay at a paltry $29.

Things weren't quite as clear this past Sunday, as 56 percent of the action ended up on the Packers, but our surveys had San Diego with 11 $1000-plus bets to eight for Green Bay. Big bets are usually sharp bets. The wiseguys have spoken – now all they have to do is figure out whether the Packers or the Denver Broncos are more fade-worthy for their Sunday Night Football matchup in Week 8.

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