Sometimes we peruse the NFL odds and find that the best bets are not on the side or total but on the individual performances of the players. Here are a few quick rules on when to take the plunge on players props and when to stay away.
Exploit These Circumstances
Correlated parlays are outlawed in some offshore sportsbooks because when one thing happens it enhances greatly the possibility that another thing will happen. For instance if the NFL odds favor a team by 14 and the total is 38 then one might expect that if the favorite covers the 14 point impost then the likelihood of the total going over 38 is greatly increased because there will already be a guaranteed 15 points if the chalk covers.
The same logical solutions can be drawn from the NFL odds on a particular game and the player proposition bets. If we have a heavy favorite where one would have to lay north of a touchdown or bet a money line that is prohibitive then we might want to check out the head-to-head skill position bets. If we believe one team to be vastly superior to another than it might not be a bad idea to bet the quarterback of the favored team head to head in passing yards over the QB of the underdog. We can assume that if the winning team throttles the underdog as they are supposed to do then the quarterback will have plenty to do with that. We could also wager that the quarterback of the favored team will pass for more touchdowns. Suppositions to be sure and no guarantees of course but they are logical conclusions that can be less risky to bet than the side or the total itself.
The same could be said of two evenly matched running backs that are facing each other's comparable run defenses. If one running back has gained his yardage against stout run defenses while the other running back has equal stats but against less accomplished run stop units then we can see a clear opportunity. But the only way you will know this is if you do your research. Homework is important!
Big names usually come with big prices. It makes no sense to avoid laying the heavy lumber on a big money line favorite if you are going to simply swap one high risk - low reward for another. Quarterbacks like Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers will all be harnessed with heavy odds in head-to-head matchups with lesser names. Sometimes that can be a snake pit for your NFL picks while other times you can use that to your advantage and find a big live underdog. If you feel the risk is simply too big, pass the game, the prop and find another betting opportunity.
In addition, if a team is multi-faceted with an arsenal of offensive weapons it might be wise to stay away from backing any one of those skill positions on an offensive juggernaut. Rob Gronkowski of the New England Patriots is undeniably the most feared tight end in the league and arguably the greatest tight end to ever play the position. However, it can be foolish to bet him in a head-to-head prop versus another tight end because a) he is always heavily favored and b) the Patriots have so many weapons at their disposal that sometimes Gronkowski is used as a decoy because he routinely attracts double coverage from the defense leaving a slot receiver or someone else open for the short to mid-range passes. Analyze what happened the last time the teams played and which players got all the points and accrued all the gaudy stats. Player props can be a nice way to pad your bankroll if you bet them wisely.