NFL Betting strategies s
Future Odds in most sports are kind of like the lottery tickets of NFL picks. However you can find value in these offseason odds, you just have to know where to look for it.
The most common type of NFL future odds is to win the Super Bowl. Rarely do you find value in this type of bet, because through a 16-game season and through the playoffs, many different things can happen. It’s the same with bets to win the conference. If you do chose to bet one of these future odds, remembering that big favorites aren’t always the way you want to go is important. Big favorites don’t represent the same value as dark horse teams or slight long shots. It’s better to look for the Packers at +1100, or the Falcons at +1400, instead of the 49ers at +600. The 49ers don’t have that much of a better chance to win the Super Bowl than those two, yet they are inflated by the sportsbooks.
There are future odds bets that can prove to be steadier. Betting on a team to win their division is a little safer than the futures mentioned above, as is my favorite future odds bet, which is a cross between a prop and a future odd, and that’s a team’s season wins total. I have already covered season wins extensively as well, and you can view it on the NFL Free Picks page.
There are a bunch of other crosses between props and futures, like ‘who will win the MVP this season’ and ‘who will win defensive rookie of the year?’ All of these are not very valuable, because like with bets to win the Super Bowl, literally a million things can go wrong which would jeopardize your bet.
However there are some of those hybrid bets that have value. Take Will Hill’s future props for example. They have odds like ‘Who will have more sacks, JJ Watt or Aldon Smith’ or ‘Who will have more rushing yards, DeMarco Murray or Darren McFadden?’
These types of bets have a lot less variables to account for, and with both the ones mentioned above, the odds are a 50/50 proposition at -110. Although you won’t get the lucrativeness like you would if you bet the Steelers to win the Super Bowl at +2000, you will get a much greater chance of cashing your bet. Take for example the prop bet below from Will Hill USA.
‘Who will have the most passing yards this season, Aaron Rodgers, or Andrew Luck?’ Last season the answer was Luck by 81 yards. This season, Luck is a +140 underdog to Rodgers at -160. Both will have better running games this season, but at +140, the value is once again with Luck. He has the worst defense of the two quarterbacks, which means he’ll likely have to throw more from playing from behind. If the two quarterbacks were that close last season, Luck should be a solid bet to win again this season as a big underdog. I also like Dwayne Bowe to edge out Mike Wallace in receiving yards this season at -110.
These are the kind of NFL Odds you need to be on the look out for if you want to wager some before the season starts. Don’t just fall into the sucker bet of betting the Patriots to win the Super Bowl this season.