NFL Betting: False Favorites and Top Dogs for Wagering Week 11

Doug Upstone

Wednesday, November 18, 2015 7:34 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 18, 2015 7:34 PM UTC

Last week of byes and thankfully so. This week the numbers are really tight with a couple NFL Pick's, hard to find useful betting odds from sportsbooks this time around, but we persevere. 

Took some extra time was able to find three plays which I felt comfortable with to supply you as football handicapper.

For this article and video, I am now a high quality 20-10 ATS on the year for sports picks, 66.6 percent. The present listed NFL odds are courtesy of Heritage.


False Favorite: Hard to Back Eagles as Faves
I correctly went against Philadelphia last week and ended up on the right side, thought it did require some luck. The Eagles dominated the early part of game over Miami in building 19-3 lead. At that point Philadelphia backed off the gas pedal and the Dolphins woke up and they took the lead and knocked Sam Bradford out of the game. In comes Mark Sanchez, who like the shingles just does not go away. Sanchez guided Philadelphia into position for what should have been the game-leading field goal late in the fourth quarter, but threw interception in the end zone. Granted, Sanchez has enjoyed some success in Chip Kelly system, but obviously is not trustworthy enough to secure starting job. If Tampa Bay can continue to playing outstanding run defense like they have in last five games (72.4 allowed), this forces Sanchez to throw and the Eagles at -5.5 against Buccaneers on 4-1 spread move, appears challenging to cover.

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False Favorite: Chicago In Wrong Role
I have climbed on the Bears back the past two weeks and picked up two outright upset winners. With Peyton Manning out and Brock Osweiler in, Chicago has been made a one digit home favorite. I'm am not suggesting this line is not accurate given the state of both teams, rather I believe Denver players have opportunity and take it. Given the Broncos defense was placed in terrible spot due to team's five turnovers last week, I see this as circle the wagon's situation for Gary Kubiak's team. Watch for the defense to live up to No. 1 ranking, the offensive line mans up and take advantage of Bears run defense which concedes 4.6 yards a carry. Though improving, Chicago is still 5-14 ATS at Soldier Field the past three years and finds way to lose, making them false favorite for my NFL picks.

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Top Dog: Buffalo In Better Number to Cover
Remember the old Roadrunner and Wile E. Coyote cartoons? This is what I think of when thinking about Rex Ryan's obsession in wanting to defeat Bill Belichick and New England. Ryan talks bravado, but seldom delivers and becomes like a side show when every already knows the outcome. The Patriots were blowing out the Bills in Buffalo back in September when Belichick thought he could send Rex a message and it backfired, with the Bills closing gap to 40-32 final score. Not many are realistically going to give the Bills much a chance, which is usually when Buffalo is at their best. The Bills are 4-1 ATS against New England when getting seven or more points and end up making a game of this at a touchdown or better.

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