NFL Betting: False Favorites That Require Your Attention Week 14

Doug Upstone

Tuesday, December 8, 2015 5:48 PM GMT

Tuesday, Dec. 8, 2015 5:48 PM GMT

Down to the final quarter of the season and when reviewing the betting odds from the sportsbooks, we start to head into time of year when good or bad matchups are hard to predict outcomes.

In a conflict of bad squads, you have to determine who is ready to back it in, or with good clubs, who is more ready to win and the best choice for NFL picks.

Had my first losing week in awhile on these sports picks, but still very profitable 25-13-1 ATS on the year, 65.7 percent. The current NFL odds are courtesy of Heritage.

 

False Favorite: St. Louis Going Down the Tubes
Detroit vs. St. Louis, who wants to get their season over faster? At this point I say it's the Rams, who have lost five in a row and are just as sickly 0-4-1 ATS. It sure looks like the St. Louis has zero faith in whatever quarterback plays for their team and in each of the last several games, you could visibly see the team wilt knowing they were not going to score any more points. The Lions suffered arguably the hardest defeat of the season in Green Bay, but I think they will benefit having more than a week to let the sting ease. Detroit should understand they could be on 4-0 SU and ATS streak and their run defense has held last four opponents to a sick 58 yards per game.

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False Favorite: Kansas City Comes Up Flat in Division Affair
It would seem inconceivable a NFL team could go from 0-5 SU and ATS to 6-0 SU and ATS without a significant roster addition. Yet, this is what Kansas City has done. The Chiefs have assembled four very focused efforts since returning from London and despite this being an AFC West affair, Kansas City is a double digit favorite against a San Diego squad they drilled 33-3 just three weeks ago and might not play with the same fervor. From my special systems as a football handicapper, I find teams past the halfway point of the season with a win percentage of 51 to 60 percent, taking on opponent that is winning 25 percent or fewer of the games, as 3.5 to 10-point favorites, they are miserable 4-22 ATS, winning by less one point a game since 2006.

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False Favorite: Tampa Bay Too Large a Favorite
The NFL odds have Tampa Bay favored by four over New Orleans which on the surface is very likely accurate. When you look at the Saints they are 1-5 and 2-4 ATS on the road and being destroyed by 14 points a contest. However, this is only the fifth time in the past five years the Buccaneers have been favored by more than a field goal (1-3 ATS), thus we are not talking about them feeling confident like the Patriots here. Also, the matchup comes into play and the best way to beat New Orleans this year is throwing, but coach Lovie Smith prefers balanced attack with his rookie quarterback Jameis Winston. When road underdogs of 3.5 to 10 point have gone over the total by more than 28 points in their previous game, in the second half of the season, they are 36-13 ATS, making the Bucs a false favorite.

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