NFL Betting: Everyone Loves The Pittsburgh Steelers In Week 6

Jason Lake

Tuesday, October 11, 2016 10:12 PM UTC

Tuesday, Oct. 11, 2016 10:12 PM UTC

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 4-1 SU and ATS, and they're already a popular Week 6 NFL pick for Sunday's road game against the hapless Miami Dolphins (1-4 SU and ATS).


Record: 8-6 ATS, 4-7 Totals

It ain't easy being contrary. Imagine betting on the Miami Dolphins this Sunday when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers; the Dolphins are last in the AFC East at 1-4 SU and ATS, while the Steelers are first in the AFC North at 4-1 SU and ATS. According to our consensus reports, only 30 percent of early bettors like Miami as a 7-point home dog on our NFL odds board.

But this might be the right play – especially if you get the Dolphins at +7.5, which you can at some locations as we go to press. Gazing into the crystal prolate spheroid, we can see the betting public swarming the marketplace this weekend and unloading on the Steelers, so we expect Miami +7.5 to be widely available before kick-off. Maybe even +8 or better.

Something Fishy

There's no denying the popularity of the Steelers. They're No. 1 on the public money charts, an internationally-recognized brand with an elite quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger and an elite running back in Le'Veon Bell. The Steelers are also No. 1 in the AFC at plus-9.2 on the Simple Rating System at Pro-Football-Reference.

And then you have the Dolphins. Hoo-boy. They're No. 19 in public money, and near the bottom of the entire league at minus-7.0 SRS. People love Roethlisberger – well, they respect his on-field performance, at least – and people sure hate Miami QB Ryan Tannehill. Maybe they should direct some of that vitriol at the front office, which has allowed the offensive line protecting Tannehill to turn into dust. Either way, the Fins passing attack has been brutal, and that's with offensive guru Adam Gase taking over as head coach this year.

So why put the Dolphins in your NFL week 6 picks? Market forces. The whole point behind contrarian betting is to get a bargain price on a team that nobody – well, hardly anybody – wants to bet on. Buy low, sell high. Our expanded consensus report shows Miami pulling in 40 percent of the monies wagered on this matchup, for an average bet size of $31.50 compared to $20 for Pittsburgh. It's not high-roller money, but it's another sign that the Dolphins are the sharper pick this week.

Free NFL Pick: Dolphins +7.5 (–115)
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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