NFL Betting: Early Look At QB Odds For First Round Draft Picks

Matthew Jordan

Tuesday, April 19, 2016 3:49 PM UTC

Tuesday, Apr. 19, 2016 3:49 PM UTC

Let's take a look at quearterback odds from PaddyPower for what is arguably the biggest offseason day of NFL with the first round of NFL Draft in Chicago next Thursday.

Titans, Rams Have Already Shaken Up Draft
The Tennessee Titans earned the right to pick No. 1 overall in this year's draft thanks to a 3-13 record and winning a tiebreaker over the Cleveland Browns, who finished with the same mark. In hindsight, Cleveland blew it by beating visiting Tennessee 28-14 in Week 2 last season. The starting quarterback for the game for the Browns? Johnny Manziel. That's a story for another day.

The Titans had the No. 2 overall pick last season and used it on 2014 Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota. And he looks like a franchise-type quarterback. In 12 games,  Mariota completed 230-for-370 passes (62.2 percent) for 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions, a solid rating of 91.5. The former Oregon Duck had a four-touchdown passing game in his NFL debut against Tampa Bay and also had a 112-yard rushing day in December against Jacksonville. He's the real deal.

So while the Titans are set at the NFL's most important position, they have holes just about everywhere else. Instead of keeping that top overall pick, the Titans swung a massive deal with the Los Angeles Rams last week where Tennessee sent that top pick along with its fourth- (No. 113) and sixth-round (No. 177) picks to the Rams in exchange for Los Angeles' first-round pick (No. 15), two second-round selections (Nos. 43 and 45) and a third-round pick (No. 76). The Titans also will get the Rams' first- and third-round picks in 2017.

That's a pretty sweet bounty for the Titans considering there's not a considered lock franchise quarterback in this year's draft like Jameis Winston or Mariota last year. But Los Angeles is going to choose either Cal's Jared Goff or North Dakota State's Carson Wentz with that pick. Which will it be? Really depends on the day or reporter you listen to. An L.A. Times reporter said it was going to be Wentz, who has the higher upside but obviously played at a lower level of college football. ESPN's Adam Schefter says the Rams are leaning toward Goff, who is more polished. The Rams made this trade now instead of on draft night so they would have two weeks to pick apart both guys  as deeply as possible and make a decision.

On PaddyPower's NFL odds, Wentz being the first quarterback chosen is -120 with Goff at -110. The Rams probably aren't counting on their rookie to start opening day as they are content with Case Keenum for now.

PaddyPower also offers 'over/under' 2.5 quarterbacks drafted in the first round, with the 'over' at -400 on NFL picks and 'under' at +240. Wentz and Goff are 100 percent locks to be taken. Cleveland is considered likely to take whichever one the Rams don't unless the Browns get a big offer for that No. 2 overall pick and that's very possible. The San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles have both been linked to that pick. The 49ers pick No. 7 overall right now but want a quarterback to replace Colin Kaepernick. If the Niners could get Wentz or Goff, they are expected to trade Kaepernick to Denver. The Eagles have both Sam Bradford and Chase Daniel but neither is really a long-term answer.

There are only two other quarterbacks with a realistic chance to go in the first round: Memphis' Paxton Lynch and Michigan State's Connor Cook. I believe it's almost a sure thing that Lynch is chosen in that round. The Eagles or 49ers could stay put and take Lynch. The Browns could if they trade down. Maybe the Broncos trade up to get him as Lynch isn't expected to be there when Denver picks. Cook could be the champs' choice at the bottom of Round 1 if they don't get Kaepernick.

NFL Free Picks: Wentz goes No. 1, Goff No. 2 (but maybe not to Browns) and at least three quarterbacks are taken in Round 1.

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