On July 15th Tom Brady dropped his appeal to the commissioner’s ruling of a four-game suspension, so instead of taking his case to the Supreme Court, Brady has opted to accept he is sitting out the first four games. However, did the loss of Brady for a quarter of the regular season hurt New England’s future odds value?
Ever since the court of appeals reversed the district judge’s decision to reinstate the suspension, the sportsbooks have been really cautious in taking bets on Patriots’ future odds. Ever since the end of May only one or two sportsbooks have been offering future odds on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl.
Even though sportsbooks have been releasing their futures on the Pats since the news of Brady dropping his appeal, the numbers aren’t too far off from where they had the Patriots’ NFL Odds before all this mess started reemerging this summer. The Patriots are still anywhere from +750 to +800 to win the Super Bowl and before the news of Brady losing the league’s appeal, the Patriots were around only +700 to +750.
The Patriots are also still easily the AFC favorites and their odds have barely moved, if at all. They sit at +400 or +350 at most shops to win the AFC this season. They were slightly lengthened at a few books from +333 to +350, but not enough to suddenly make you doubt that they are the best in the AFC.
This all could be for several reasons, but the two biggest are that the Patriots play three of their first four games at home and Jimmy Garoppolo might not be that bad.
Weeks 1-4 and Jimmy Garoppolo
The Patriots open their season in Arizona in what will almost certainly be a loss without Brady. The Patriots are +5 ½ underdogs on the first Sunday of real football and considering it’s a nationally televised game, it would be pretty surprising to see the Pats pull off the upset against a talented Arizona defense.
However, their next three games without Brady are all at home and they are all very winnable. Matchups against the Dolphins, Houston and Buffalo could be winnable games for Garoppolo and the Pats’ defense. Plus, the sportsbooks seem to already be agreeing with that sentiment.
South Point sportsbook in Las Vegas is currently offering odds on how many games the Patriots will win in their first four games and as of a few days ago the favorite is three wins at +180. A record of 2-2 follows at +200, but considering all three of those teams heading into New England to start the season have their faults, the Patriots will at worst be 2-2 through their first four games.
Garoppolo has not had much time under center in his time with the Patriots, but when he has seen the field in the preseason he hasn’t looked bad. His time at Eastern Illinois may go overlooked considering the OVC is far from a football conference, but there is a reason the Pats went after the Illinois native in the second round of the 2014 draft.
All in all, the Patriots’ future odds are still a fine wager this season with Peyton Manning out of the AFC and football. With the issues the Steelers are facing, the Patriots are still the class of the AFC as of the preseason.