NFL Betting - Denver Broncos vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 4 Picks

Denver Broncos players celebrating in field

Jason Lake

Thursday, September 29, 2016 9:19 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 29, 2016 9:19 PM UTC

Will this year Broncos top last season performance as Super Bowl winners? I definitely believe they'll be a strong NFL pick this Sunday afternoon against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.


Let's not overdo the Trevor Siemian praise just yet. The rookie quarterback has the Denver Broncos at 3-0 SU and ATS to start the season, and yes, Siemian had an excellent game in last week's 29-17 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals (–3.5 at home), throwing for 312 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Well done, but this is still a three-game sample. Pro Bowl nominations do not get handed out in September.

Having said that, Siemian has performed quite well thus far – certainly better than his predecessors did last year. And that's why the Broncos look like a solid NFL week 4 pick this Sunday (4:05 p.m. ET, CBS) when the visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who are off to a slow start at 1-2 SU and ATS. Denver opened at –3 and remain there on our NFL odds board at press time, despite nearly 70 percent of early bettors jumping on the Broncos bandwagon.

Manziel > Manning
Let's take a moment to remember how Peyton Manning's career ground to a halt last year in Denver. The five-time MVP finished second-last on the QB efficiency charts at Football Outsiders, behind such luminaries as Ryan Mallett, Johnny Manziel, and Matt Cassel. Things got so bad for Manning, Brock Osweiler represented a substantial improvement, even though Osweiler performed a shade below league-average.

Siemian was also a touch below average before unloading the clip in Week 3. There's definitely some upside there, but even if the former Northwestern Wildcat plays at replacement-level, the Broncos can ride their superior defense to another deep playoff run. As for the Bucs, they looked good in the season opener, but the last two games have been disappointing. Injuries on offense are slowing down their rebuilding process at exactly the worst time.

The situation looks bad enough for Tampa Bay that some markets have the Broncos winning Sunday's game 76 percent of the time, for an Elo-based spread of Denver –8. That seems a bit much, but others believe in Denver at 63.2 percent, which is north of –3.5. The betting public will probably want the defending champs this weekend, so let's lock in our football pick now before the price jumps any higher.

Free NFL Pick: Broncos –2.5 (–135)
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes
Record: 5-3 ATS, 4-3 Totals

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