NFL Betting Consensus Report Week 8: Who Got it Wrong?

Tampa Bay Buccaneers player celebrating

Kevin Stott

Saturday, October 29, 2016 4:18 PM GMT

Saturday, Oct. 29, 2016 4:18 PM GMT

Even though the Oakland Raiders have been dynamite on the road so far this season, there has been enough Buccaneer's money in some sportsbooks to move this game as much as 2 points the host's way, but is this Wiseguy money perceived “smart” money? Let’s try to validate an NFL pick on the Silver and Black.

 

Oakland Raiders vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Opener: Pick ‘em (BookMaker)
Wednesday: TB -1½ -105 (BookMaker)
Friday: Pick ‘em (BookMaker)

A 1½-point move on Buccaneers money (then back Thursday) at BookMaker—which offers a 50% Free Play Bonus —in this NFL Week 8 game and although understandable a likely a majority of Sharp money, it just seems wrong as in 2016 the Oakland Raiders have been a different animal on the Road and are making all those Futures Book players look smart with a 5-2 SU Record—and 4-0 on the Road, where Derek Carr (13 TDs, 3 INTs) and the Raiders have traditionally been bad, especially in the Eastern Time Zone. 

In Oakland games with 1 p.m. ET starts from 2012-1015, the Silver and Black were 3-17 SU, scoring 14.9 ppg and losing by 11.6 ppg. In 2016 on the Road, Oakland is 4-0—and 4-0 ATS—averaging 28.3 ppg, outscoring opponents by 6.5 ppg. So credit to HC Jack Del Rio (12-11 ATS) and the team which has picked it up Defensively and believes in Carr who has 6 game-winning drives the L2 seasons. And the Raiders have some talent besides Carr (64.4 QBR, #12 NFL) in Latavius Murray, Amari Cooper, Michael Crabtree, Khalil Mack, veteran Charles Woodson and K Sebastian Janikowski and are getting production from WR Seth Roberts (19 receptions, 3 TDs) and DeAndre Washington (235 yards).

 

 

Relevant Series & Overall Trends, Best Betting Approaches

With Oakland is 7-0 ATS in its L7 Road games, finally feeling Confident about flying east and losing 3 Time Zones and playing at 10 a.m. with their California Body Clocks, the line moving the Raiders way and the Buccaneers a pathetic 18-42-1 ATS at Home at Raymond James Stadium (30%), the pick here is on the NFL’s latest Road Warriors, Oakland—and yet another team which has trouble playing well at Home (1-2), with the franchise rumored to be moving to Las Vegas.

 

 

The Raiders are 3-0 in games decided by 3 points or less and the Over may also be worth a look with warm Weather in the forecast (84°), the Over 34-16-2 in the L52 Oakland games following an ATS win and 5-0-1 the L6 in this series. The Raiders can, and will expect to this game and will be fueled by the Fear of an improved AFC West with the Super Bowl Champion Broncos (5-2), Chiefs (4-2) and Chargers (3-4) all also playing some good football right now.

 

NFL Picks ATS Record: 51-32-1Predicted Final Score: Raiders 27 Buccaneers 23NFL  “Who Got It Wrong” Pick: Raiders +103 at Intertops

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