NFL Betting - Consensus Report Week 6 Falcons vs Seahawks - Who Got it Wrong?

Kevin Stott

Saturday, October 15, 2016 6:59 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 15, 2016 6:59 PM UTC

Our betting expert takes a look into the consensus poll and determines that midweek money going to the Seahawks was a bonehead play. Why? The Falcons are legit and they will continue to show it.

Midweek Money on Seahawks in Seattle on Sunday Seems So Silly

The Atlanta Falcons are suddenly a glamour team in the NFL after impressive back-to-back Wins over last year’s Super Bowl participants and, all of a sudden, the Dirty Birds are in the same role the 1-4 Panthers were from the NFC South at this time last season—shocking the rest of the NFL. But is Atlanta for real and can they keep it up? With an ability to put points on the scoreboard and a D rising to the occasion, the answer is a resounding “yes” and this is a team which can not only possibly make the Super Bowl, but win it the way they are playing. Let’s explain why the Seahawks money is dumb and make a pick on a live underdog who can pull off an upset in The Emerald City if everything goes right on Sunday.


Sunday, October 16, 2016

Atlanta Falcons vs Seattle Seahawks, 4:25 p.m. EDT

Opener: SEA -5½ (BetOnline)

Current:  SEA -6½ (BetOnline)

Movement Analysis: A 1-point move on Seahawks money, and granted, there are reasons to like Seattle in this NFL Week 6 spot including the choice CenturyLink Field site which provides one of the NFL's strongest advantages. And Atlanta playing back-to-back Road games far from home—in this case 3 Time Zones—should be difficult, especially against vs. olne of the NFL’s strongest Defenses. But this athletic Falcons team is in a groove, healthy and just beat last year’s Super Bowl combatants by a combined 71-49. If the Falcons Defense (28.0 ppg) can play like it did in Denver in Week 6, then this team can honestly make a Super Bowl (25/1 at Bovada which has a 100% Cash Bonus and an A grade in SBR’s Ratings of Best Offshore Sportsbooks) run if it can find a way to burst the Vikings purple bubble should the two meet somewhere down the road in the NFC Playoffs.

Relevant Series and Overall Trends, Best Betting Approach

Atlanta (4-1 SU, 4-1 ATS) has won and covered 4 straight—and the Over is 4-1 in Falcons games as well as 4-1 the L5 in this series—with 50+ total points scored in all games but Denver last weekend (ATL 23 DEN 16; 44½, Under), so this is team both pundits and pro gamblers should take seriously. Atlanta is 4-0 ATS L5 Road games, 1-4 ATS its L5 Week 6 and 3-9 ATS the L12 vs NFC and have trended toward Unders in recent seasons before this 2016 Over surge, with the Under 23-9-1 the L33 and 8-2-1 the L11 October games.

But those numbers (Science) are running into the seemingly new reality (Art) of a reborn Falcons QB Matt Ryan (36-33 ATS Road, 3-0 ATS in 2016) with some nice Offensive weapons like legend Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman, Tevin Coleman, Jacob Tamme and now Mohamed Sanu. The Seahawks (+850 to win Super Bowl, 5Dimes) are 42-20-1 the L63 on FieldTurf but 3-12 its L15 Week 6 games and just 1-5 ATS its L6 following a SU Win.

This is definitely a game the Falcons can win (ATL 3-2 SU L5 vs. SEA), and that in itself handicaps the game. So find Atlanta +7 if possible and fade Seattle team which has struggled to score points (#28 Total Offense, 19.8 ppg) lately despite its newfound perennial spot in the NFL’s elite. Pick: Falcons +7 -130 (5Dimes)


PREDICTED FINAL SCORE: Falcons 27 Seahawks 24NFL REGULAR SEASON WEEK 6 PICK: Falcons +7 NFL PICKS ATS RECORD: 38-28-1Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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