NFL Betting - Carolina Panthers vs Los Angeles Rams - Week 9

Joe Gavazzi

Sunday, November 6, 2016 2:56 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 6, 2016 2:56 PM UTC

A lot of handicappers are loving the Rams on this matchup, but Joe Gavazzi says they are dead wrong on this one. The Panthers have all the right tools to crush them today. Read on for his free NFL Pick.

 Carolina Panthers (-3) vs LA Rams 4:05 ET

One of the reader favorites on this page every week is the NFL CRUSHER OF THE WEEK. It is usually geared around dominance at the point of attack. We know that this millennium, any NFL team who outrushes their opponent by 30 or more yards a game has a 75% chance to beat the point spread. In a similar way, I note that teams who run the ball 30 or more times in a game, while their opponent does not, cover the spread 85% of the time. And if your opponent runs the ball 22 or less times in a game, and you do not, you have an 86% chance to cover. Don’t be surprised if Carolina qualifies in one or more of those categories this week as they CRUSH the LA Rams. 

There is normally a lot of love by technical handicappers for playing the LA Rams and HC Fisher in the underdog role. Combined with his team’s ability to bounce back, Fisher-coached teams are a 70% play in the role of home dog when his teams come off a loss of a TD or more. That is the role he is in today following the Rams’ 17-10 loss to the Giants in London. LA actually outgained the Giants in that contest, 345-232, but fell victim to 4 INTs by QB Keenum. Entering their BYE week, it was the Rams’ third consecutive loss. In their defense, they outgained each of those 3 opponents. The bad news for the Rams is they have done a poor job with their running game. They have yet to get RB Gurley (only 58 RYPG) untracked, and as a team are averaging just 80/3.2 overland. Against a Carolina defensive line that is allowing just 80/3.3 overland, near identical numbers, it is doubtful the Rams have much success today. 

The Panthers entered their BYE week at 1-5 SU. It would have been easy for them to toss the towel knowing that only two teams had ever qualified for the playoffs following a 1-5 SU start. But this is a prideful group who was 17-2 SU last year, losing to Denver in the Super Bowl. The Panthers responded with force, outrushing an avenging Arizona team 36/141 to 10/24. As I pointed out at the beginning of this analysis, that will get you the money a large percent of the time. The Panthers dominated that contest on the defensive side of the ball as well, with 8 sacks.

Never easy to play last year’s Super Bowl loser as a non-division road favorite, but with the Panthers being reborn following the victory, it is easy for this bureau to line up with them as this week’s NFL CRUSHER OF THE WEEK.   I invite you to put the NFL ODDS in your favor and join me in my NFL PICK on the Carolina Panthers.

Remember to drop by SBR's list of the best-ranked bonuses, and find out which of the top rated sportsbooks is offering the best deals!

Free NFL Pick: Panthers -3Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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