NFL Betting: Capper Pinpoints Sharp Action On NFC West Teams

Jason Lake

Thursday, January 14, 2016 6:59 PM UTC

Thursday, Jan. 14, 2016 6:59 PM UTC

If you're wondering who the sharps have in their NFL picks this week, take a look at the NFC West. The Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals are locked and loaded.

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Free NFL Pick: Seahawks +3
Best Line Offered: at Bovada


Well, that was fun. Wild Card Weekend delivered some of the craziest, most dramatic television content I've seen since Sledge Hammer! was left to die on the vine. All four Wild Card teams won, which has never happened before, and two of them needed some very good fortune to make it to the Divisional Round.

That includes the Seattle Seahawks. They beat the Minnesota Vikings (+6 at home) 10-9 after Blair Walsh shanked a 27-yard field goal attempt for the Vikings with under a minute to go. Laces out~! Seattle moves on to face the Carolina Panthers on Sunday (1:05 p.m. ET), and according to our consensus numbers, the 'Hawks are drawing considerable sharp money as 2.5-point road dogs on the NFL odds.


On Unfamiliar Playing Ground
Here's the skinny: At press time, only 41 percent of bettors have Seattle (11-6 SU, 8-8-1 ATS) in their NFL picks this weekend. However, those bettors are providing 68 percent of the monies wagered on this matchup, for an average bet size of $633. None of the remaining seven playoff teams is drawing that kind of action. In fact, the Panthers (15-1 SU, 11-5 ATS) have the second-largest average bet at $211. Consider this your Game of the Week.

Funny how we always end up talking about Seattle's betting value at this time of year. No matter how well they perform, the 'Hawks toil in relative obscurity in the Pacific Northwest, with a 5-foot-11 third-round draft pick playing quarterback. Maybe if Russell Wilson (1,314 Total DYAR) did a little dance or handed out footballs after every touchdown, he'd get some of those MVP votes that Cam Newton (763 Total DYAR) will be getting instead.


Moon Over Palmer
Of course, all those votes really belong to Carson Palmer (1,692 Total DYAR). But again, his Arizona Cardinals (13-3 SU, 9-7 ATS) do their thing out West, and Palmer doesn't come pre-packaged with catchphrases or a million-watt smile. Which gives Arizona ample betting value in Saturday's matchup (8:15 p.m. ET, NBC) with the Green Bay Packers. At press time, bettors are split 50/50 between the two teams, but the Cards are pulling in 70 percent of the action for an average bet of $129. Green Bay? A mere $55.

There's one thing, though: Arizona is laying seven points on Saturday, and the Divisional Round hasn't been very kind to home faves over the years. As in 16-30 ATS dating back to 2003. The Packers (11-6 SU, 10-7 ATS) have some warts on them, including injuries and a short week of rest after playing last Sunday, so we'll sidestep that game and focus on the Seahawks – especially with some books moving the line to +3 as we go to press. Maybe it'll move even further before kick-off.

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