NFL Betting: Capper Pinpoint's Sharp Money on 2 Marquee Games

Jason Lake

Sunday, January 3, 2016 12:16 PM GMT

The high rollers have the Cincinnati Bengals and Green Bay Packers in their Week 17 NFL picks. Are these captains of industry biting off a little more than they can chew?

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NFL Pick: OVER 45
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

 

Jason's 2015 record as of Jan. 1: 51-51-3 ATS; 0-1 ML (-1.00 units); 25-32-1 Total

 

Happy New Year, everyone. And what better way to kick things off than Week 17 of the NFL regular season. It's the last game before the playoffs – which means shenanigans. Players are sore and tired, the weather is awful – shenanigans. You have to tread lightly when you're making your NFL picks this week.

Or you could just bet the farm on the Cincinnati Bengals, or maybe the Green Bay Packers. According to our expanded consensus reports, that appears to be the plan for football's big spenders. The Bengals and Packers are pulling in the largest average bets of anyone this week, well north of $1,000 a pop, and it's not even close for third place. Let's get these chalk wagons in a circle.

 

Dear Prudence
So the Bengals are at Paul Brown Stadium this Sunday (1:00 p.m. ET, FOX), laying nine points to the Baltimore Ravens on our NFL odds, and our reports show only 45 percent of bettors on the home side. Seems prudent enough. Cincinnati QB A.J. McCarron will be playing with a sore wrist, and the Ravens just got through beating the Pittsburgh Steelers 20-17 as 11-point home dogs.

We got yer prudence right here, buddy. Those 45-percenters are supplying almost every single dollar being wagered on this game. Our surveys show 98.5 percent of the action landing on the Bengals, for an average wager of $1,532. Baltimore's average bet size? $19. Jumpin' Jehoshaphat. There are good reasons to bet on the Bengals, though. They can clinch a first-round bye with a win and some help (or just a lot of help), and TE Tyler Eifert is back in uniform after clearing concussion protocol.

 

Frozen Goods
The Packers won't be quite as chalky when they host the Minnesota Vikings for Sunday Night Football (8:30 p.m. ET). Green Bay is a 3-point favorite as we go to press, and the public is split nearly down the middle on this one, with 51 percent of bettors on the Packers. However, those bettors are contributing 96 percent of the action for this matchup, giving Green Bay an average bet of $1,275 compared to $57 for Minnesota.

Not much room for shenanigans in Wisconsin. Whoever wins will take the NFC North and home-field advantage in the first round. But wait: That game might be against the Seattle Seahawks, while the loser might visit Washington in the Wild Card round, depending on what happens in Sunday's early games. Shenanigans! Also, it's going to be frickin' freezing at Lambeau Field – but under mostly clear skies, just like the Ravens-Bengals contest. If you're making an SNF pick this week, why not consider a small bet on the OVER instead?