NFL Betting: Capper Pinpoint's Early Sharp & Public Action for Week 16

Kevin Stott

Wednesday, December 23, 2015 4:51 PM GMT

Let’s look at the games where there has been some movement, albeit, small, worth noting and try to gauge which way these Point Spreads will go as well as provide a couple of NFL picks.

Introduction: A Tough NFL Weekend For the Sportsbooks
There has been seemingly less line movement early on this penultimate NFL Week 16 and it’s likely a byproduct of the actual games on the Schedule itself, so much apathy from teams now out of the postseason picture and the Christmas Week itself, although there have been a couple popular favorites who have seen their Point Spreads trickle up. In Week 15 action—after having 9 straight weeks where the sportsbooks pretty much all had weeks in the Black—it was the players who grabbed some Holiday money backing big-name favorites like the Patriots, Seahawks, Packers, Cardinals and Chiefs all of whom covered and added to a reported estimated $4 million loss by sportsbooks here in Las Vegas alone. Don’t cry for me, Jimmy Vaccaro. Why the big hit? The answer is usually always all of those little the parlays adding up in the end, as the combination of Smart (Sharp, Wiseguy) money and General Public money on a favorite can really add up when the Man (or Woman) on the Street is hitting 4- (11/1) and 5-team (20/1) and maybe more (legs) chalky parlays on a Sunday afternoon. This has again been a busier year than the year before (2014) in the NFL marketplace, with so much more information, so many more ways to bet and the media covering the NFL in what is truly, though slowly, becoming a worldwide sport, almost in the opposite way Soccer (American Football) has slowly taken root here in the United States. Outsiders can say what they like about sports gambling and its effects on a culture or society, but the way American sports gamblers have learned about the world from simply betting on Soccer or the way Europeans, Asians and South Americans learn about our Football by gambling on or watching the New York Jets has been a positive for all involved as both Footballs continue to thrive and remain the two biggest boys on the betting block. The amount of action and attention on the NFL this season proves nobody knows how big this beast can grow and sportsbooks have every reason to get excited and gear up for Football seasons. It’s really Big Business.

 

Sunday, December 27, 2015

New York Giants vs. Minnesota Vikings
Line Low: Vikings -4, Dec. 20 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Current Lines: Vikings -4, -5, -5½, -6
Current Low Line: Vikings -4 (Treasure Island, Sportsbetting.ag, at BetOnline)
Current High Line: Vikings -6 (Sportsbook.ag, CarbonSports.com)
Analysis: A momentary Middle opportunity for this who think this game will land on (Minnesota winning by) 5, but for the most part, this Point Spread is north of where it opened Online, Offshore and here in Sin City and the vast majority of it has to be early Sharp money on Teddy Bridgewater and the visiting Vikings (9-5 SU, 11-3 ATS) in this NFC inter-divisional game from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday. Why? Maybe the one-game Suspension to Giants star WR Odell Beckham Jr.—he’s appealed of course and it will be ruled on Wednesday but expect it to firmly stand up—for his abhorrent behavior (he drew 3 Personal Foul penalties) in the Giants Loss to still undefeated Carolina on Sunday. But like most things, the movement—where it has gone to 5 and up—is probably more so a combination of things, including how well Minnesota looked in thrashing the Bears on Sunday in Week 15 play, 35-17. The last time these two played, New York NFC won and covered ATS, 23-7 as 4-point favorites on the NFL odds at Home in 2013 while the last meeting here in Minneapolis, the Giants also won and covered, this time as 5-point favorites back in 2010. Head Coach Tom Coughlin (106-91-4 ATS) and the Giants are 3-1 ATS the L4 in this series and 4-1 ATS the L5 here in Minnesota. A stay away.

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Dallas Cowboys vs. Buffalo Bills
Line High: Bills -5½, Dec. 20 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Current Consensus Line: Bills -6 (Almost everywhere)
Current High Line: Bills -7 (+115,at 5Dimes)
Analysis: Maybe the Wiseguys think the Winter Weather in Buffalo (TWC Forecast Sunday: AM Showers, 41°) may make it hard for the almost indoor team from Texas or maybe the early movement on the Bills here (Monday-early Tuesday) is because the Dallas Cowboys (4-10 SU, 5-9 ATS) will have little inspiration and will reportedly be going with whatever-string-now QB and Boise State product and southpaw Kellen Moore. Whatever it is, and it seems like mostly Sharp money, has moved this line Buffalo’s (6-8 SU, 6-7-1 ATS) way, with a small Middle opportunity at (Bills winning by) 6 for those who like to try to climb that narrow mountain. The last time these two played, the Cowboys roped the Bills in Big D, 44-7 in 2011, losing as 5-point underdogs while the last time they played here at Ralph Wilson Stadium in in upstate New York, Dallas won 25-24 in 2007, but host Buffalo were getting 10½ points and covered ATS. Dallas will be losing just one hour in Travel (MST to EST) and the Cowboys are 4-1 ATS the L5 in this series but the Bills are 3-0 ATS the L3 played here in Flour City. Understand the possible theories behind backing the Bills here but don’t like where the Point Spread was, is or how the Bills are playing under 1st-year Head Coach Rex Ryan.

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Baltimore Ravens
Line Low: Steelers -9½ Dec. 20 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Current Consensus Lines: Steelers -10, -10½
Current High Line: Steelers -11½ (+115, 5Dimes)
Analysis: Again, The Sharps have fallen in love with the Steelers and who can blame them with Pittsburgh winning 5 of its L6 and playing so well? And Offshore sportsbooks like Pinnacle and 5Dimes are often harbingers of which way a Point Spread usually heads in the following days in the NFL. Here, you can even shoot for a 2-point Middle (Steelers by 10 and 11) if you’d like, and expect the spread in this one to rise in places where there are still 10’s, 10½s and even 11’s as nobody will want any part of the Baltimore Ravens (4-10 SU, 3-9-2 ATS) who looked helpless here at Home at M&T Bank Stadium in Crab City on Sunday, losing its third straight and falling to 2-5 SU at Home. And you want some other reasons why there is so much early steam on Christmas Week for this game? Jimmy Clausen. No doubt the smart money has seen the former Bears backup Clausen in action and against a motivated Steelers team, having Jimmy Clausen as your QB even at Home is a dangerous proposition. Expect QB Ben Roethlisberger, WR extraordinaire Antonio Brown and the rolling Steelers (9-5 SU, 8-4-2 ATS) to stomp a mud hole in their AFC North rivals here in a game which used to almost always be decided by 3 points. Not with Jimmy Clausen starting. 33 maybe. Take Pitt as your NFL pick.

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NFLPick: Steelers -10 
Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle