NFL Betting: Capper Highlights Early Sharp & Public Action for Week 17

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, December 29, 2015 3:45 PM GMT

Tuesday, Dec. 29, 2015 3:45 PM GMT

So where has the early money gone and are there any good NFL picks before the Point Spreads may rise with any continued steam? Let’s take an early week look.

Sunday, January 3, 2016

 

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills
Line Low: Jets -1½, Dec. 27 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Current Line Low: Jets -2½ (Treasure Island, Sportsbetting.ag, 5Dimes)
Current Consensus: Jets -3
Current Line High: Jets -3
SuperBook Advanced Line: Bills -1½
Analysis: If the Jets win, they’re in (the AFC Playoffs as a Wild Card entrant), so this line soared from 1½ to 2 to 2½ on Sunday in just 4½ hours over at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, and this (morning), we see a (Jets minus) 3 hanging on the big betting board. So, heavy Sharp and probably, in this case, a fair amount of General Public money has been bet on New York (10-5 SU, 9-5-1 ATS) and QB Ryan Fitzpatrick here and it seems like a wise move for this Week 17 AFC East game at Rich Stadium in Buffalo against the Bills (7-8 SU, 7-7-1 ATS), who have L4 of 6 SU but who would love nothing more than to put a dent in the the Jets hope and, especially with former Jets Head Coach Rex Ryan now roaming the sidelines in Buffalo. When these two last met in Week 10 at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, the Bills won outright as 2½-point underdogs, 22-17 and with that ATS cover the Bills are 5-1 ATS the L6 against New York. Although Buffalo would love to ground the Jets here, Taylor and his Receiving Corps won’t be able to hang with Fitzpatrick and his dynamic and underrated WR duo Brandon Marshall (101 receptions, 1,376 yards, 13 TDs, 13.6 ypc) and Eric Decker (75 receptions, 977 yards, 13 TDs, 13.0 ypc) who are really productive and feeling good right about now, especially with Decker making that game-winning catch in OT on Sunday against the Patriots. The pair only caught 9 passes for 108 yards and Fitzpatrick threw 2 Interceptions in the first meeting, so expect a much better performance from all three. Take Jets as your NFL pick for Sunday's action.

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NFL Pick: Jets -3
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

 

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns
Line Low: Steelers -8½, Dec. 27 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Current Line Low: Steelers -9½ (SuperBook, William Hill, Peppermill, TI)
Current Consensus Line: Steelers -10 (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)
Current Line High: Steelers -11 (+115, 5Dimes)
SuperBook Advanced Line: Steelers -9½
Analysis: Obviously the early money here is banking on the perceived Motivation that QB Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6 SU, 7-6-2 ATS) will have here after the Jets funky Con Toss-influenced OT Win against the Patriots combined with Pittsburgh’s Loss to the Baltimore Ravens in Week 16 as well as that Offense which can be very productive. And the matchup is also probably a good reason why some betting groups and/or the General Public has bet early (Sunday, Monday) on Antonio Brown and host Pittsburgh here against Johnny Manziel and the lowly Browns (3-12 SU, 5-9-1 ATS). When these two met earlier this season in The Steel City, the Steelers trounced Cleveland, 30-9, covering ATS as 7-point favorites but Pittsburgh is just 1-3 ATS the L4 here in Cleveland and so Head Coach Mike Tomlin (75-73-4 ATS) will need guys like RB DeAngelo Williams, TE Heath Miller and WRs Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton to produce as the Browns will obviously be keying on superstar WR Brown (123 receptions, 1,647 yards, 9 TDs, 11.1 ypc). With this at 11 in some places that often are harbingers of future Point Spread direction, it’s not hard to see this line continuing to climb maybe as much as 2 points more with so few games on the board where bettors can be sure teams will be playing for something. Pittsburgh certainly is. 

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New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
Line Low: Falcons -1½, Dec. 28 (Sportsbook.ag)
Current Line Low: Falcons -3½ (Bookmaker, DSI, CarbonSports.ag)
Current Consensus Line: Falcons -4
Current Line High: Falcons -4½ (Station Casinos)
SuperBook Advanced Line: No Line
SuperBook NFL Games of the Year Line: Falcons -2½
Analysis: Like with the Steelers in the NFC, more movement because of perceived Motivation for Matt Ryan and the host Atlanta Falcons (8-7 SU, 6-9 ATS) over Drew Brees (Torn Plantar Fascia) and the New Orleans Saints (7-9 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) on Sunday afternoon in this NFC South Week 17 game at the Georgia Dome which matters to the Falcons despite the fact they were eliminated from making the Postseason on Sunday despite knocking off the previously unbeaten Carolina Panthers. But why? And why the big jump on Atlanta from 1½ all the way up to 3½ at Sportsbook.ag in less than 5 hours time today (Monday)? Maybe because of the situation (meaningless), this primarily smells like Sharp money and it has to be a combination of things known and unknown. The known? The site (Georgia Dome in Atlanta) and the Situation (Falcons WR Julio Jones has 127 receptions this season and is now just 16 catches away from tying the Colts Marvin Harrison all-time Record of 143 set in 2002), which should see Falcons QB Ryan targeting #11 (Jones) early and often to make this a possibility/reality, and, Saints QB Brees is still hobbled (Heel) despite playing and looked pretty decent on Sunday, throwing for over 400 yards in a Win over the Jaguars.
When these two teams met earlier this season in Week 6, New Orleans burst Atlanta’s perfect little birdy bubble, winning outright, 31-21 as 3-point underdogs in The Big Easy, so Revenge may also be baked into the bettor’s minds here in a game that has moved as much as any other one early on. And the Trends support backing Atlanta also here in this spot as the Falcons are 3-1 ATS overall the L4 in this series, 3-0 ATS here in Atlanta, and feeling good after knocking off previously unbeaten Carolina on Sunday as RB Devonta Freeman and the Atlanta Defense looked really motivated. The Falcons will also be ready to end this disappointing Regular Season on a high note. All the movement here is understood, but siding with the choppy Falcons against the unpredictable Saints doesn’t sound as smooth as just taking the Over (52, 5Dimes) and/or banking that Julio Jones catches a TD pass in what could evolve into a mindless shootout. (Non Early Line Movement)

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NFL Picks: Over 52 & Julio Jones Anytime TD Scorer Prop Bet
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

 

Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
Line Low: Cardinals -3½ Dec. 27 (SuperBook, CG Technology, Stratosphere, TI)
Current Line Low: Cardinals -3½ (Treasure Island)
Current Consensus Lines: Cardinals -4, 4½
Current Line High: Cardinals -5 (Station Casinos)
SuperBook Advanced Line: Seahawks -3½
SuperBook NFL Games of the Year Line: Seahawks -2½
Analysis: The flip-flop of the favorite (from NFL Games of the Year/Advanced Line to Opener) here tells the Big Picture tale of perceptions and how NFL odds view two of the best five teams in the NFL right now. This Spring, the largest sportsbook in the world, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook here in now ch-ch-chilly Las Vegas, had the defending NFC champion Seahawks open as 2½-point chalks for this contest, then last week, after the Seahawks had rolled off 5 straight Wins and 7 out of 8 and looking invincible (for a third straight 2nd Half) before being properly humbled (and swept) by their evil nemesis, the St. Louis Rams on their sacred home CenturyLink Field turf in Emerald City on Sunday. It seems this is “confident” money (in the context of being confident on Arizona’s play of late) from mostly Sharps (Wiseguys) but some General Public action also as both likely see how good Head Coach Bruce Arians’ team really is and maybe that some of their biggest obstacles in the conference (Seattle, Green Bay, Carolina) look definitely beatable and down from last season.

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Although it seems a Patriots-Cardinals Super Bowl 50 may be brewing in Santa Clara in February, this Week 17 NFC West game may actually be the Super Bowl in disguise in some weird way. When these two meet for the next several seasons, these games will likely have huge significance not only in the NFC, but in the NFL in general. There are Big Dogs on the porch and the Cardinals (13-2 SU, 9-6 ATS) and Seahawks (9-6 SU, 7-7-1 ATS) are certainly two of them and although maybe not tabbed “elite” yet by the Suits and Ties just yet, USC product Carson Palmer and University of Wisconsin product Russell Wilson are two of the most intelligent QBs on their feet in the league right now as guys like Peyton Manning, Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and even Tom Brady to a certain degree are starting to really show their age. Their faces reveal all. When these two in Seattle earlier this year, Larry Fitzgerald, John Brown and Arizona upset the host Seahawks, 39-32. But still, with that Defense and off a Loss and being asked to lay up to 5 points (Station Casinos) with the Cardinals after we could have had Arizona getting 2½ points here in the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook Advanced Line marketplace ($3,000 Limits) just days ago, the theory is still the same here: It may be best to just watch and enjoy this one and hope for some entertainment value. And with WR Doug Baldwin and the Seahawks are 4-2 ATS the L6 in this series, that seems Okay. Just because games are perceived as big and have two great teams doesn’t always mean we get what we expect and with both in the Playoffs already, who knows how much and how hard Seahawks Head Coach Pete Carroll will really push it here.

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