NFL Betting - Capper Fades Early Money Plays Based On Week 4 Consensus Report

Kevin Stott

Thursday, September 29, 2016 10:02 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 29, 2016 10:02 PM UTC

Let’s look at the Oakland Raiders vs. Baltimore Ravens and the Dallas Cowboys vs. the San Francisco 49ers, on Sunday, and make two contrary NFL picks where the early money got it wrong.

Oakland Raiders vs. Baltimore Ravens
Opener: BAL -4 -110 (5Dimes)
Current: BAL -3 -120 (5Dimes)


Movement Analysis
Although not a strong consensus side by definition just yet, the Point Spread here has gone down 1 point since its opening Sunday night at 5Dimes, with the visiting Oakland Raiders getting the slight majority of the early money, creating a couple of Ravens -3’s in the current marketplace. Joe Flacco and the Ravens head into this Week 4 home game as one of five NFL unbeatens and more healthy than last season.


The Raiders are notoriously poor playing in the eastern time zone, going 1-16 SU in their L17 games “back east” where the team loses 3 body clock hours and starts all 1 O’Clock p.m. Not even professional athletes want to tackle at 10 a.m. The Ravens +405 to win the AFC North at Heritage—which has a 50% Sign-Up Bonus (to $250) —have done very well ATS against Oakland (0-8 ATS L8 Week 4), going 6-3 ATS since 1992 and 5-0 ATS (and SU) in the L5 games played in Baltimore (2-9-1 ATS L12 Home).


Key Player Injuries, Suspensions
Oakland Raiders -
 Menelik Watson injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Baltimore (Leg), Matt McCants "?" Sunday vs. Baltimore (Knee), Austin Howard "?" Sunday vs. Baltimore (Ankle), Mario Jr. Edwards out indefinitely (Hip), Gabe Holmes out indefinitely (Foot), Aldon Smith out indefinitely (Suspension)

Baltimore Ravens - John Urschel "?" Sunday vs. Oakland (Shoulder), Alex Lewis injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Oakland (Undisclosed), Elvis Dumervil "?" Sunday vs. Oakland (Foot), Michael Campanaro IR (Calf), Carl Davis IR (Undisclosed), Chris Matthews IR (Undisclosed),  De'Ondre Wesley IR (Undisclosed), Nick Boyle expected to miss first 11 games (Suspension), Darren Waller expected to miss first 4 games (Suspension), Kenneth Dixon out indefinitely (Knee), Matt Elam IR (Knee), Lorenzo Taliaferro PUP (Foot), Kyle Arrington IR (Concussion)


Free NFL Pick: Ravens -3 -120 
Best Line Offered: at BetDSI

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Dallas Cowboys vs. San Francisco 49ers
Opener: DAL -1½ (BetOnline)
Current: DAL -3 +100 (BetOnline)



Movement Analysis 
As you can see, the heavy consensus early money has been on the Cowboys and the Point Spread has risen 1½ so far at Offshore sportsbooks for this Week 4 game with the betting public enthralled with Rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott. But San Francisco has played in Seattle and at Carolina back-to-back and will be ready for a team like the Cowboys, still a work in progress, despite being pretty good on the Road lately. But at +3, there is perceived value in this NFC matchup game from Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara with an underrated Home San Francisco team better than the public thinks it is looking not to fall to 1-3. Dallas is a pathetic 3-14 its L17 without usual starting QB Tony Romo (Back).


Key Player Injuries, Suspensions
Dallas Cowboys -
 La'el Collins IR (Toe), Dez Bryant is downgraded to expected to miss Sunday vs. San Francisco (Knee), Charles Tapper IR (Back), Mark Nzeocha "?" Sunday vs. San Francisco (Achilles), Orlando Scandrick "?" Sunday vs. San Francisco (Hamstring), Tyron Smith "?" Sunday vs. San Francisco (Back), Randy Gregory expected to miss first 14 games (Suspension), Darren McFadden PUP (Elbow), Rolando McClain expected to miss first 11 games (Suspension), Jaylon Smith PUP (Knee), James Hanna PUP (Knee), Tony Romo out indefinitely (Back), Demarcus Lawrence expected to miss first 4 games (Suspension), Kellen Moore IR (Fibula)


San Francisco 49ers - Jimmie Ward injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Dallas (Quad), Anthony Davis has retired (Concussion), Vance McDonald injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Dallas (Hip), Torrey Smith injured last game, "?" Sunday vs. Dallas (Ankle), Ray-Ray Armstrong IR (Pectoral),  Ian Williams IR (Ankle), Will Redmond IR (ACL), Thad Lewis IR (Knee), Aaron Lynch expected to miss first 4 games (Suspension), Bruce Ellington IR (Hamstring)


Free NFL Pick: 49ers +3 -120 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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