NFL Betting: Beware Of Home Underdogs Off Victory

Doug Upstone

Monday, June 20, 2016 1:00 PM UTC

Monday, Jun. 20, 2016 1:00 PM UTC

What a number of sharp bettors and those who learned and followed the presumed experts have found out when betting NFL football was the anticipated value of playing home underdogs.

For decades, it has made sense because the benefits are in place for success. Though professional players and coaches do not look at point spreads, they might be made aware they are underdogs in certain situations and are able to play the "respect" card in particular situation, feeling unappreciated and with the backing of the home crowd might rise up with a superior effort.

Or another scenario could be wanting to knock off a top level team who might not be taking them seriously and engineer upset against the NFL odds. This is all well and good, but what we are interested in the following week, when that emotion is likely to be missing, either home or away.


Following The Flow of Numbers
After such a victory, these teams have a tendency to regress against the point spread, as oddsmakers will often shade a squad off such win, thinking the public will back such a club because of momentum from winning the prior week. At least against the spread offered by top sportsbooks such as Bovada, this has not been the case. Here are their records going back to 2010 against the spread.

2010 - 11-14 ATS
2011 - 9-12 ATS
2012 - 17-16 ATS
2013 - 9-19 ATS
2014 - 5-14 ATS
2015 - 11-7 ATS

Though some years have been close, teams that pulled off straight up home upsets are 62-82 ATS the past six years at just 43 percent covering rate.

The explanation is rather simple, these clubs were underdogs for a reason the previous week, as sportsbooks understood the strengths and weaknesses of each team and made number based largely on those factors. Just because they have on stellar performance , it does not change the viewpoint of on squad unless they put together a group of such efforts, when an adjustment in thinking and power ratings would be necessary.


Wait, It Gets Better
For some football bettors, they might not be excited about such numbers, but it only gets better as the season wears on for this circumstance. How we know about this is tracking it weekly and that means we have more detailed data.

When an NFL team is off a home upset triumph in the past five weeks of the regular season, recent history shows you should even further consider playing against them the following week for NFL picks. In this time span they are a mere 12-23 ATS, 34.2 percent in next outing.

Why would this improve, let's think about the point spread later in the season. Heading into the final quarter of the season, if a club is a home pooch, they have essentially established they lack the ability of their opponent and sportsbooks like Heritage set the appropriate numbers. While being able to conquer a better foe is noteworthy, over at least 12 games you have given notice what kind of outfit you are and the expression "Any Given Sunday" just happened to work in your favor this one week.

The fact is these squads are much more likely to return to the norm or even regress in next contest late in the year and be handled versus the number. It might be a good a idea to save this article for future use this NFL campaign.

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