NFL Betting Angles Put to the Test with Preseason Picks

Joe Gavazzi

Tuesday, August 25, 2015 8:51 PM UTC

Tuesday, Aug. 25, 2015 8:51 PM UTC

After 36 years of sports handicapping, I have a habit of revisiting my previous picks to learn how to improve. Let's revisit Week 2 of NFL Preseason to see how our betting systems did.


Preseason NFL Picks
In early August 2015, I penned numerous articles about NFL handicapping. Included were a series of topics in which I pointed out the importance of handicapping the running game, when focusing on NFL point spread winners. Week 2 of NFL-Ex play normally sees starters play into the 2nd quarter. It is our first look at where teams may be headed in the upcoming season. For that reason, it is an important exercise to check our NFL ATS indicators against the results.  

There is very positive news! The patient is alive and well, functioning just as anticipated. This article will review the success of our indicators that will give hope for their efficiency once again this 2015 NFL season.  

The 16-game, Week 2 card, was completed with Tampa Bay’s total domination of Cincinnati in a 25-11 victory. That put a positive conclusion on a week that was most rewarding for our indicators. Consider the following betting angles when preparing your next NFL Picks.


NFL Betting Angle: 80% Successful
In the first of a series of NFL articles, I began by relating the fact that NFL Teams who outrush their opponent by 30 or more yards are a 75% ATS winning point spread play this millenium. In Week 2 of NFL-Ex, 10 teams outrushed their opposition by 30 or more yards. The record was 8-2 ATS (80%).  


ATS Success & Rushing Attempts
Next in line, came an article on rushing attempts. The thinking was that if you were able to control the ball overland against your opponent, it would result in point spread success. The thinking went like this: play any NFL team who runs the ball 30 or more times per game, if their opponent does not. The record for Week 2 of NFL-Ex was 5-0 ATS with winners on Washington, Chicago, New England, San Francisco and Tampa Bay.

The corollary to the above angle was to play against any NFL team who runs the ball 22 or less times per game, if their opponent does not. The Week 2 record for this situation was 6-0 ATS with winners coming by Playing Against Detroit, NY Jets, New Orleans, Green Bay, Dallas and Cincinnati.     


Turnover Margins & Point Spread Profit
Yet another article showed the importance of turnovers in the NFL. It showed us that regardless of how the other facets of the game played out, it was very hard to overcome a TO margin of 3 or more. I summed up the situation by telling you that any team with a +3 or more net TO margin in an NFL game has a 92% chance to cover the point spread. Teams with a +3 net TO margin in Week 2 went a perfect 3-0 ATS with winners on the NY Jets, San Francisco and Tampa Bay.  


Straight-Up Winners & ATS Proficiency
Furthermore, we have noted that when the NFL odds opening line is 6 or less points, we can have great success, if we just pick the SU winner. The angle read in any NFL game, where the opening line is 6 or less points, the SU winner of the game has a 90% ATS proficiency. In Week 2 of NFL-Ex, every game had an opening line of 6 or less points.  The SU winner of the game was 14-2 ATS with the lone exception being Kansas City and, a contest in which there is a flip of the favorite between the Carolina Panthers and Miami Dolphins.  


Notes of Interest for Preseason NFL Picks
8-2 SU ATS Play On any greater than .500 team from the previous season who did NOT make the playoffs last year (KC, Buffalo, Philly, San Diego and Houston).

11-6 SU ATS Play Any Non-Playoff Team from last year against a playoff team from last year.  This situation was 7-2 SU ATS in Week 2.

40.6 … the average O/U number for Week 2.

38.8 … the average score per game for Week 2, resulting in 7 OVERS and 9 UNDERS.

From the stat review above, I would say our indicators are on the right track for the upcoming season of NFL picks. I will continue to track these and other results in the FB season, as I have each week for the last 36 years. Stay tuned for more enlightening results!

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