NFL Betting: 5-Pack of Week 9 Value Picks

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, November 1, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Friday, Nov. 1, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL plays for this Sunday to build your bankroll for Week 9, highlighted by the late afternoon game between the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns.

It is hard to believe that we have already reached Week 9 of the 2013 NFL season, meaning we will be beyond the midway point of the season at the end of this week. We do not want this year to end as it has been a good season for us thus far. We are now 40-27 YTD in the NFL with all of our plays posted free for the whole world to see on SBR Forum! We hope that continues as we will be here every week offering up our 5-Packs of NFL picks during the year.

This week began with an upset as the Miami Dolphins surprised the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday night 22-20 in overtime, marking just the third time in NFL history that an overtime game ended in a safety! We feel especially bad for those that played the ‘over’, as they no doubt thought they had won their bets once the game went into overtime, but because of the safety, the total was a ‘push’ against the closing total of 42.

Moving on to Sunday, we have four sides and one total for Week 9 with three favorites and one underdog. As usual, all NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.

Sunday, November 3rd
San Diego Chargers -1 (-102) over Washington Redskins: The Chargers have been one of the most pleasant surprises in the NFL this season going 4-3 overall and 5-1-1 ATS, and this is a team that could easily be 6-1 and in the AFC West title mix with the Broncos and Chiefs, as in two of their three losses they gave away late leads to the Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans! It has been a resurgent year for quarterback Philip Rivers after failing miserably the last few seasons under the fired coach Norv Turner, as he has completed an amazing 73.9 percent of his passes while still averaging a healthy 8.6 yards per attempt, throwing for 2132 yards and 15 touchdowns while cutting the interceptions that have plagued him the last couple of years down to five. The Chargers are also off of a bye week, giving them extra time to prepare for a Washington defense that has allowed the second most points in the NFL at 32.7 per game while ranking 29th in total defense, 30th in rushing defense and most significantly for this game 28th in passing defense while surrendering an ugly 7.9 yards per pass attempt. It does not help that Robert Griffin III is still not where he was last season, as he completed only 15-of-30 passes for just 132 yards vs. the Denver Broncos’ defense last week, and he only gained seven yards on his five rushes.


Carolina Panthers -9½ (+120) over Atlanta Falcons: It is important to note that the Panthers are available at -7 right now at sportsbooks that do not use teaser-protection lines like Pinnacle does. We foolishly played against the Panthers last week as 6½-point road favorites vs. the pitiful Tampa Bay Buccaneers thinking they had not done enough to be effectively 10-point favorites on a neutral field. This week we think the opposite is true as Carolina seems undervalued at -4 or -4½ neutral in this spot vs. a Falcon team whose season is just about done. The Carolina defense has been quite impressive as the Panthers now rank third in the NFL in total defense allowing 301.4 yards per game and they are second in scoring defense yielding just 13.7 points per contest. The only game the Panthers have lost at home this year was by just a 12-7 score to a Seattle Seahawks team that some consider favorites to reach the Super Bowl, and in their last three games overall, they have outscored their opponents by an average score of 32.0-12.7. Granted the Panthers have not faced much but the injury-riddled Falcons can now also be listed among that “not faced much” group! Atlanta comes off of an ugly 27-13 loss to the Arizona Cardinals where it allowed what had been a non-existent Arizona running attack to rush for 201 yards, and the Falcons are now facing a Carolina offense averaging 130.0 rushing yards during its three-game winning streak.


Kansas City Chiefs -4 (+103) over Buffalo Bills: The Chiefs were supposed to be improved this season, but nobody expected them to be the final remaining unbeaten team in the NFL at 8-0. Are they really as good as that record? We do not think so. But will this be the week they taste defeat as a road favorite? Again, we do not think so, especially with the Bills having injuries throughout their offensive skill positions. On a positive note for Buffalo, running back C.J. Spiller is listed as probable, but he has not been nearly as good as he was last year and is still probably not 100 percent with the bothersome ankle that has hindered his cutting ability. The biggest negative on the Bills’ side is the doubtful status of quarterback Thaddeus Lewis, meaning that undrafted free agent Jeff Tuel figures to make his first NFL start after looking so bad in a relied role after starter E.J Manuel was injured that Lewis was activated from the practice squad to start over him! Perhaps even worse, Tuel will be backed up by Matt Flynn. The Chiefs just keep rolling along thanks to a great defense and a conservative, mistake-free offense in which quarterback Alex Smith has been the perfect fit. Of course it helps to also have an MVP candidate at running back in Jamaal Charles, who leads the team in both rushing yards (635) and receiving yards (383). Charles as yet to be held under 100 yards from scrimmage in any game this season, and that should not change vs. a Buffalo team ranked 26th in total defense.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers +15½ (-110) over Seattle Seahawks: What can we say, either we love suffering or we love living on the edge, as this is the second straight week that we have backed the pitiful Buccaneers, possibly the worst team in the NFC, and this time vs. one of the Super Bowl favorites! Before making those phone calls to Bellevue however, consider that Tampa Bay has perhaps an unfairly large advantage in preparation time here as the Buccaneers faced Carolina in the Thursday night game last week, while the Seahawks come off of a Monday night game where they narrowly escaped with a 14-9 win over the St. Louis Rams. The fact that the Seahawks managed to win that game despite a dismal effort from quarterback Russell Wilson and the offense could work against them here, as they could again play without any sense of urgency vs. an opponent that should be thoroughly outclassed, especially with tougher games coming up on the schedule. Seattle managed just 135 yards in the win in St. Louis compared to 339 yards for the Rams. Now granted, the Seattle defense continues to perform at a championship level, but the performance of the offense right now simply makes giving this many points too dicey, as the Buccaneers may only need to score 10 points or so to cover this lofty number.


Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns ‘over’ 41 (-110): Offense is not the first thing that comes to mind when thinking about these two teams, but that is precisely why this total is low enough that the ‘over’ seems attainable given the circumstances of this week. Those circumstances include the Ravens coming off of a bye week following a hard fought 19-16 road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers two weeks ago. That bye week allowed the defending Super Bowl Champions to get healthier, as wide receivers Jacoby Jones and Marlon Brown are both active this week with Jones likely to resume his kick returning duties, and Ray Rice now gets a chance to be the healthiest he has been all year. Thus, look for the Baltimore offense to more closely resemble the team that averaged 24.9 points and 352.5 yards last season en route to the championship. As for the Browns, for the second time this season, the offense looked much better after quarterback Brandon Weeden was benched, first in favor of third stringer Brian Hoyer and then for Jason Campbell last week, as Campbell completed 22-of-36 passes for 293 yards. If that comes across as an indictment of Weeden, well, if the show fits… Also, the Baltimore defense has had its struggles on the road, allowing 28.5 points per game.


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