NFL Betting: 5-Pack of Week 8 Value Picks

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, October 25, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Friday, Oct. 25, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL plays for this Sunday to build your bankroll for Week 8, highlighted by a late afternoon game between the surprising New York Jets and Cincinnati Bengals.

We are already almost to the midway point in the 2013 NFL season as we have reached Week 8, and it has been a great season for us thus far even with a loss Thursday night as we are 36-22 YTD in the NFL with all of our plays posted free for the whole world to see on SBR Forum! We hope our good fortune continues for the rest of the year as we will be here every week offering up our 5-Packs of NFL picks during the regular season.

Our Thursday night loser was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6, as they showed why they are now 0-7 straight up this season as they were never really in the game in what was tuned out to be an easy 31-13 win for the Carolina Panthers, who are now over .500 for the first time in the Cam Newton era and for the first time since the end of the 2008 season, at 4-3. That contest went ‘over’ the closing total of 39.

Moving on to Sunday, we have four sides and one total for Week 8 with the sides evenly divided between two favorites and two underdogs, including a selection on the second NFL game played at Wembley Stadium in London, England this season. As has become our norm, all NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.

Sunday, October 27th
Buffalo Bills +11 (-108) over New Orleans Saints: Do not look now but despite injuries to their top two quarterbacks at the beginning of the year and running back C.J. Spiller mostly ineffective all season due to a quad injury, the Bills are 5-2 ATS including 2-0 ATS with former practice squad quarterback Thaddeus Lewis as the starter, as under his guidance the Bills have taken the Cincinnati Bengals into overtime and then upset the Miami Dolphins outright on the road last week. Granted, this is a much tougheer matchup on the road vs. a New Orleans Saints team that has had two weeks to stew over a bad loss to the New England Patriots due to bad clock management toward the end of the game for the Saints’ first loss after a 5-0 start, followed by a bye last week. Now we realize that favorites coming off of a bye are dangerous, including going 88-51-4, 63.3 percent ATS since 2005, but we are talking about giving double-digits to an underrated Buffalo defense here. The Bills are allowing a respectable 5.4 yards per play overall and defensive end Mario Williams is finally looking like a number one draft pick now that he is healthy as he has 10 sacks through seven games, putting him well on his way to surpassing his career high of 14 sacks in his second season in the NFL with the Houston Texans in 2007.


Detroit Lions -3 (-109) over Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys took advantage of some shaky quarterback play by Nick Foles and especially by rookie Matt Barkley in a 17-3 win over the Philadelphia Eagle last week, but we do not expect them to be as fortunate in this tougher road assignment vs. the Detroit Lions. The Lions should be in an ornery mood after losing here at home 27-24 to the Cincinnati Bengals on a 54-yard field goal by Mike Nugent on the final play of the game. The good news to come out of that loss is that Calvin Johnson, who had been slowed by an injured knee in recent weeks, appeared to be just fine while catching nine passes for 155 yards and two touchdowns, one of which went for 50 yards. Quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 357 yards in the loss, and the Lions are now ranked seventh in the NFL in total offense and fifth in passing defense while having a legitimate running threat for the first time in ages in Reggie Bush who must be respected by opposing defenses, so do not expect the Cowboys to match their stifling defensive performance of last week, especially with DeMarcus Ware expected to be out again. On the other side of the ball, the Dallas offense struggled in the win over the Eagles without DeMarco Murray and Miles Austin. Murray might be back this week, but he has been limited in practice so just how effective he is remains to be seen.


Jacksonville Jaguars +14½ (-103) over San Francisco 49ers (at London): The Jaguars may as well change their name to the “Wembley Jaguars” as it was just announced that they will play another game here in England next season and they will be the “home” team for the second straight year. And why not, since Jacksonville is winless at 0-7 and has alienated much of its fan base here at home. Being “home” in London could actually be a good thing for a team that followed up an encouraging 35-19 loss on the road to the Denver Broncos as a 26½-point underdog by then laying an egg in what some thought was actually a winnable game vs. the San Diego Chargers in their “real” home in Jacksonville, losing 24-6. Not all the news was bad though as Chad Henne threw for 318 yards. The 49ers have started to resemble last year’s Super Bowl team again, winning four straight games since a 1-2 start, and they just won a non-conference game 31-17 on the road vs. the Tennessee Titans last week. The Niners are obviously the far superior team here, but they may have a difficult time getting up for their second straight non-conference foe and they really have no reason to run up the score on foreign soil here, especially with a more important conference game vs. the hot Carolina Panthers up next.


Cincinnati Bengals -6½ (+100) over New York Jets: This contest did not look like much before the season started, but the Bengals now have a two-game lead in the AFC North at 5-2 as they are the only team in the division that is over .500, while the Jets are surprisingly in the wild card race and at 4-3 only trail the New England Patriots by one game in the AFC East after upsetting the Pats 30-27 last week in overtime! However, the big concern for the Jets here and one of the reasons we like the Bengals quite a bit giving less than a touchdown is the inconsistency of rookie quarterback Geno Smith. Yes, he was excellent against the Patriots aside from throwing a Pick Six, as he even threw for five more yards than Tom Brady did. However, through his first seven NFL starts, Smith has alternated very good games and mostly awful games, a pattern that puts him in line for the latter in this contest. Even more concerning is going up against a fierce Cincinnati pass rush that is much better than the New England rush that still sacked him four times last week. Meanwhile the Bengals have the single biggest game-breaker for either side here in A.J. Green, who is probably the best wide receiver in the AFC, and his presence has allowed Andy Dalton to pass for a total of 709 yards over the last two weeks in road wins over the Buffalo Bills and Detroit Lions.


Atlanta Falcons, Arizona Cardinals ‘over’ 46½ (-105): The Falcons played without wide receivers Roddy White and Julio Jones and running back Steven Jackson last week, but apparently someone forgot to tell quarterback Matt Ryan as he completed 20-of-26 passes for 273 yards with Harry Douglas being on the receiving end of 149 of those yards on seven catches with a touchdown and running back Jacquizz Rodgers adding two receiving touchdowns out of the backfield in a 31-23 win over the winless Buccaneers. Then again, offense has not been an issue for the Falcons despite being a disappointing 2-4 and suffering all those injuries, as the Falcons are ranked ninth in the NFL in total offense and also ninth in points scored at 25.5 per game. The negative takeaway from last week’s win is that the Falcons made it seem as though the Buccaneers had a competent offense as Tampa Bay quarterback Mike Glennon had the highest passer rating of his brief career in the game at 90.7. The fact that Glennon and the Bucs’ offense reverted back to the norm vs. Carolina Thursday is a further indictment of an Atlanta defense ranked 20th in total defense and 23rd in points allowed at 26.2 per game. Arizona is not known for its offense but the Cardinals have had extra time to prepare for this game since losing to the Seattle Seahawks 34-22 in a Thursday night game last week, and if they can score 22 vs. one of the best defenses in football, they could score enough vs. this Atlanta defense to help push this game ‘over’.


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