NFL Betting: 5-Pack of Week 7 Value Picks

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, October 18, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Friday, Oct. 18, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL plays for this Sunday to build your bankroll for Week 7, highlighted by the late afternoon affair between the Baltimore Ravens and the Pittsburgh Steelers.

We have already reached Week 7 of the 2013 NFL season in seemingly quick order, and it has been a great season for us thus far as we are 31-18 YTD in the NFL with all of our plays posted free for the whole world to see on SBR Forum! We hope to continue that good fortune the rest of the way as we will be here every week as usual offering up our 5-Packs of NFL picks during the regular season.

This week began with the Seattle Seahawks going on the road and covering rather easily as five-point road favorites over the Arizona Cardinals in a 34-22 triumph on Thursday Night Football as Russell Wilson threw for 235 yards and three touchdowns and the great Seattle defense held Arizona to only 234 total yards. Much of the scoring in the game was set up by turnovers, as the contest did soar ‘over’ the closing total of 41.

Moving on to Sunday, our Week 7 selections are made up of five sides with four favorites and just one underdog, which goes against our natural nature, but hey, 31-18 is 31-18!. As usual, all NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.

Sunday, October 20th
Carolina Panthers -6½ (-115) over St. Louis Rams: The Panthers and Rams both come off of surprisingly easy road upset wins as Carolina routed the Vikings 35-10 at Minnesota and St. Louis surprised the Texans 38-13 in Houston. The Rams have now won two straight games to even their record at 3-3 while the win by the Panthers was just their second of the year (2-3), but we still get the sense that Carolina is the more undervalued of these two teams right now. In fact, the Panthers look like the better team on both sides of the ball, so we have no qualms about laying less than a touchdown at home here. The Rams benefitted greatly from four Houston turnovers to score 38 points last week, including returning an interception and a fumble each for a touchdown, as the reality was that the St. Louis was as inept as usual while accumulating only 216 total yards! The Rams rank 30th out of 32 NFL teams in total offense as they have no running game whatsoever while quarterback Sam Bradford is only completing 59.5 percent of his passes and averaging only 6.2 yards per attempt. The underrated Panthers on the other hand rank second in the NFL in total defense and seventh in rushing offense, with quarterback Cam Newton coming off of probably his best passing day of the season completing 20-of-26 passes for 242 yards and three touchdowns with no picks.


Atlanta Falcons -7 (+102) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Yes, the Falcons may be the most disappointing team in the NFL at 1-4 and they are injury riddled at the offensive skill positions, but coming off of a bye week and facing the mess that is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers could be just what the doctor ordered for Atlanta to resemble the team that came within one win of the Super Bowl last year, at least for this week anyway. The Buccaneers are 0-5 and are starting an unproven rookie at quarterback in Mike Glennon, who has completed only 58.1 percent of his passes while averaging a very low 5.4 yards per attempt through his first two NFL starts, and he is now making his first professional start on the road. That seems like a tall order vs. an Atlanta team that is normally tough at home despite a 1-2 mark at the Georgia Dome this year, and for all of the Falcons’ injuries on offense, Matt Ryan remains healthy and his success in this building since entering the NFL is well-documented. Besides, you cannot blame Ryan for Atlanta’s troubles this season as his 100.6 passer rating is sixth best in the NFL, and he is doing that with Julio Jones now gone for the season and Roddy White playing nowhere near to his full capacity while nursing an ankle injury.


Tennessee Titans +3½ (-105) over San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers have gone back to resembling the defending NFC Champions in their last three games following a 1-2 start, going 3-0 both straight up and ATS by going back to what got them into last season’s Super Bowl in the first place, which is running the football. In fact, Frank Gore is now up to fifth in the NFL in rushing with his 477 yards on 103 carries for a very nice 4.6 YPC. However, this could be a treacherous spot for San Francisco as a road non-conference favorite. You see, in addition to this being a relatively unimportant game for the 49ers in the whole scheme of things with more important divisional matchups in their future, the Titans may actually be a tad underrated right now after losing two straight games following a 3-1 start, as they are still a very respectable 10th in the NFL in total defense and eighth in scoring defense allowing 19.2 points per game, and they did cover the spread in a 20-13 road loss to the Seattle Seahawks last week at perhaps the single toughest environment in the NFL for visiting teams. Now under normal circumstances, facing the Seahawks and 49ers in consecutive weeks would not be considered ideal, but Tennessee caught Seattle in a look-ahead spot and the 49ers could take the Titans relatively lightly here also.


Pittsburgh Steelers -1 (-135) over Baltimore Ravens: Just one week ago, many people including ourselves were down on the Steelers following an 0-4 start, but oh what a difference a week makes after finally breaking through with a 19-6 victory over the New York Jets. With that victory, the Steelers have gone from their season being basically over had they lost last week to now actually getting back into the AFC North race if they can win again here! That is because no team in the division is running away with things with the Cincinnati Bengals at 4-2 and the Cleveland Browns and these Ravens both at 3-3, and all three of Pittsburgh’s division brethren have looked vulnerable at times this year. Through it all, the Steelers still rank sixth in the NFL in total defense despite their 1-4 mark, and that defense has an excellent chance of shutting down a Baltimore team that has looked nothing like a defending Super Bowl Champion while ranking 22nd in total offense and 18th in scoring offense at 22.3 points per game, and Ray Rice averaging a mere 2.8 yards per carry while nursing an injury has not helped matters. Look for the veteran, proud Steelers to ride the emotions of the home crowd to a second straight victory.


Kansas City Chiefs -6½ (-105) over Houston Texans: If someone had told you before the season that the Chiefs would be -6½ over the Texans in Week 7, you probably would have gone searching for the phone number for admissions at Bellevue. And yet, here we are and we actually feel Kansas City is a nice play giving less than a touchdown at home. The excitement is certainly back in Kansas City judging by the crowd noise in an authoritative 24-7 win here at home over the Oakland Raiders last week, leaving the Chiefs as one of two undefeated teams in the NFL at 6-0, along with their division-mates the Denver Broncos. Furthermore the Kansas City defense has fed off that energy from the home crowd in three wins at Arrowhead Stadium, allowing just 10.0 points and less than 300 total yards per game in those victories. The Chiefs lead the NFL in points against overall at 10.8 per game and they are fifth in total defense allowing only 306.3 yards, and it is against that defense in this extremely difficult environment that Case Keenum is making his first ever NFL start for the Texans after not yet even appearing in an NFL regular season game! This seems like a desperate move by a Houston team that has lost four straight games since a 2-0 start, and the preseason favorites to win the AFC South and chic picks to reach the Super Bowl before the season are now 0-6 ATS following an embarrassing 38-13 home loss to the Rams last week.


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