NFL Betting: 5-Pack of Week 6 Value Picks

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, October 11, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Friday, Oct. 11, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL plays for this Sunday to build your bankroll for Week 6, highlighted by the late afternoon affair between the New Orleans Saints and the New England Patriots.

We have now arrived at Week 6 of the 2013 NFL season, and it has been a great season for us thus far as we are 28-15 YTD in the NFL with all of our plays posted free for the whole world to see on SBR Forum right up through another winner on Thursday Night Football this week! Let us hope that our good fortune continues as we will be here every week offering up our 5-Packs of NFL picks during the regular season.

That Thursday winner was the New York Giants cashing for us despite dropping to 0-6 for the season, as they covered the number in a close 27-21 loss to the Chicago Bears in a game where running back Brandon Jacobs turned back the clock by rushing for 106 yards, helping to offset three more interceptions by Eli Manning. That contest just snuck ‘over’ the closing total of 46½.

Our Week 6 selections are made up of five sides with three favorites and two underdogs. As usual, all NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.

Sunday, October 13th
Cleveland Browns +1 (+120) over Detroit Lions: Cleveland appears to be a leading upset candidate in this spot, especially if Calvin Johnson misses another game or is not at full strength. Most people thought that the Browns had given up on this season when they traded away Trent Richardson and installed then third straight quarterback Brian Hoyer as the starter following Week 2, but instead they have since won three straight games and find themselves with a share of the AFC North Division lead! The bad news is that they lost Hoyer for the season to a knee injury last week, but their original starter Brandon Weeden had his best game of the year while passing for 197 yards in three quarters and leading Cleveland to a 37-24 win over the Buffalo Bills. The Browns have now had a few extra days of preparation time with that game played last Thursday and they are going up against a Detroit team that ranks 25th in the NFL in total defense and 21st in passing defense while playing their third straight game at home. The Lions are simply never trustworthy as road favorites and the health of Johnson is obviously a serious concern. Megatron sat out the 22-9 loss to the Green Bay Packers with a knee injury and has been limited in practice this week.


New York Jets -1 (-111) over Pittsburgh Steelers: The Steelers are coming off of a bye week after losing to the Minnesota Vikings over in London 34-27 two weeks ago while the Jets are playing with a short week after upsetting the Atlanta Falcons 30-28 as 10-point underdogs on the road Monday night, but that vast difference in rest aside, we still feel that Pittsburgh is getting too much respect here for an 0-4 team. This line seems based more on reputation as the reality is that this is the worst Steelers’ team in many, many years and it has issues on both sides of the ball. Do not be fooled by the 51 points the Steelers scored the last two weeks as Pittsburgh did nothing offensively this year until the second have of Week 3 vs. the Chicago Bears when the Steelers were way behind, and then the 27-point performance came vs. a Minnesota team that is 30th in the NFL in total defense. The Jets are an amazing second in the NFL in that department with the New York defense being the best unit for either team on either side of the ball. Yes, the Jets’ offense is a concern mainly due to the struggles of rookie quarterback Geno Smith, but the Jets rushed for 118 yards on a nice 5.4 yards per rush vs. the Falcons and we look for them to employ that same tactic here in an effort to take the pressure off of Smith and limit his mistakes.


Houston Texans -7½ (+106) over St. Louis Rams: The Texans were picked by many to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl before this season started, but in the last two weeks in major tests vs. NFC powerhouses, Houston first blew a 20-6 lead here at home before losing to the Seattle Seahawks 23-20 in overtime and they then went on the road last week and were absolutely destroyed 34-3 by the San Francisco 49ers. It has also not helped that quarterback Matt Schaub has set an NFL record by having an interception returned for a touchdown in four consecutive games. Well, the Texans now face their third NFC West opponent in as many weeks, but this time it is a bad St. Louis Rams team that covered its first game of the season last week, and even there the Rams needed to come from behind vs. the worst team in football in the Jacksonville Jaguars. If there was ever a situation calling for a blowout this is it, as the Texans simply have to win this game and win it handily to get their confidence back and to prove that they still deserve to be mentioned among the elite teams in the AFC. Whether that is true or not remains debatable, but we do look for the Texans to make an emphatic statement this week and for Schaub to quiet his skeptics with a redeeming game vs. the Rams’ 23rd ranked total defense.


Baltimore Ravens +1 (+116) over Green Bay Packers: This is our second outright upset call of the week as the defending Super Bowl Champion Ravens are always dangerous in this home dog role, such as when they upset the Texans in Week 3. In fact the Ravens have now won three out of their last four games since getting blown out by the Denver Broncos in Week 1, a loss that does now not seem so bad given what the Broncos have done to everybody else. The latest Baltimore triumph came on the road last week 26-23 over the Miami Dolphins while limiting the Fish to a mere 22 rushing yards. That is significant because the Packers have emphasized the run much more this season than past years after tabbing running back Eddie Lacy in the draft, and Green Bay actually ranks fifth in the NFL in rushing at 141.0 yards per game! Granted if the Ravens stuff that running game again this week like they did to Miami, there are very few quarterbacks in football that can carry one-dimensional passing offenses as well as Aaron Rodgers. Still, while the Packers are piling up the yardage, they only managed 22 points vs. a mediocre Detroit defense with a balanced offense last week, so they could be ripe for the upset here.


New England Patriots -1 (-123) over New Orleans Saints: The New Orleans Saints are a perfect 5-0, but Tom Brady of the New England Patriots lives for situations like this against fellow elite quarterbacks such as Drew Brees. Yes, the Patriots come off of their first loss of the year 13-6 to the Cincinnati Bengals last week, but that has contributed to being able to get New England at this uncharacteristically cheap price at home. The Patriots suffered from a lack of a running game last week with Stevan Ridley being out, but he could be back this week as could tight end Rob Gronkowski, and remember that wide receiver Danny Amendola made his return last week. In other words, the Patriots are 4-1 right now while playing with a depleted roster and they are just starting to get healthy, which is bad news for the rest of the NFL. On top of all that, the Saints have had their issues in outdoor games on grass in the past and in the whole scheme of things this non-conference game does not really mean all that much to them with a seemingly easy path to an NFC South title this year. Finally, never forget that Tom Brady is 26-14 ATS when coming off of a loss, and that ATS mark improves to 22-6 ATS when the Patriots are not favored by seven points or more!


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