NFL Betting: 5-Pack of Week 5 Value Picks

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, October 4, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Friday, Oct. 4, 2013 4:00 AM GMT

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL plays for this Sunday to build your bankroll for Week 5, highlighted by the late afternoon affair between the Denver Broncos and the Dallas Cowboys.

We have already reached Week 5 of the 2013 NFL season, and it has been a great season for us thus far as we are 24-11 YTD in the NFL with all of our plays posted free for the whole world to see on SBR Forum right up through another winner on Thursday Night Football this week! Hopefully our good fortune will continue as we will be here every week offering up our 5-Packs of NFL picks during the regular season.

That Thursday contest featured the Cleveland Browns covering the spread as we predicted with a 37-24 triumph over the Buffalo Bills in a more entertaining game than many people expected, with the contest easily shattering the posted total of 40½.

Our Week 5 selections are made up of five sides with three underdogs and two favorites. As usual, all NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.

Sunday, October 6th
Jacksonville Jaguars +11½ (-111) over St. Louis Rams: No, do not adjust your sets, we do indeed have a Jacksonville team that could potentially go 0-16 this season and that is losing its games by an average of 24.5 points as one of the five best bets of Week 5. Then again, this is more of a play against the Rams as double-digit favorites than it is a play on the Jaguars. Do not forget that Jacksonville is not the only team in this game that is 0-4 ATS as St. Louis also owns that dubious distinction, needing to rally to nip the Arizona Cardinals at home on Kickoff Weekend and then losing three straight with the last two defeats being by a combined score of 66-18. Neither one of these teams has been able to run the ball a lick, with the Jaguars averaging 47.3 rushing yards on 2.6 yards per carry and the Rams actually no better at 49.0 rushing yards per game on an even worse 2.3 yards per carry. At least the Jaguars are the team with the better running threat though in Maurice Jones-Drew. There could be a lot of passing with neither team able to run, and believe it or not, while neither pass defense is great, St. Louis is worse allowing 253.8 passing yards per game compared to 222.0 passing yards allowed by the Jags.

[gameodds]16/226939/?r-1=238-92-83-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Philadelphia Eagles +1 (-103) over New York Giants: The Giants are another 0-4 team, but what we hate about their play lately is that they have just seemed to give up when facing adversity. The highlight of the Giants season was when they trailed the Denver Broncos just 17-16 in the third quarter of the Manning Bowl in Week 2, but they got outscored 24-7 the rest of that game before losing 38-0 to the Carolina Panthers and 31-7 to the Kansas City Chiefs, as the Giants have staked their claim to being the third worst team in football ahead of only the Jaguars and Rams! The Giants cannot run the ball at all, which is really not that different from the past few years, but Eli Manning is now starting to crumble under the burden of having to carry the offense by himself as he is completing only 56.3 percent of his passes with nine interceptions against just six touchdown passes and a lowly 69.1 passer rating. Now the Eagles are 1-3 and haven’t won since opening night vs. the Redskins, and they were destroyed by the Broncos last week 52-20. However, at least Philadelphia was competitive in its other two games, losing by three points in the final seconds to the Chargers and losing 26-16 to the Chiefs in Andy Reid’s return to Philadelphia in a game that could have gone either way if not for five Eagle turnovers. The fastbreak offense of Chip Kelly can be successful here vs. a Giant defense that ranks 28th against the rush and 20th against the pass while allowing the most points in the league at 36.5 per game.

[gameodds]16/226937/?r-1=238-92-83-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Detroit Lions +7½ (-115) over Green Bay Packers: Can it be that the Lions are actually a good football team this year now that they have a bona fide game-breaking running back in Reggie Bush to compliment what was already a potent passing game featuring quarterback Matthew Stafford and the best receiver in football in Calvin Johnson? Detroit is 3-1 on the season, and in the game they lost, they were leading until losing Bush to an injury and then ended up getting nipped 25-21 in Arizona. The Lions are currently sixth in the NFL in total offense at a whopping 404.8 yards per game and they are fifth in passing offense with 309.0 of those yards coming through the air. Yet they continue to be successful because defenses now cannot cheat against the pass as long as Bush is in the backfield. On the other sideline, is it conceivable for the Packers to get off to a 1-3 start, especially with extra preparation time for this game following a bye week? That is a valid concern for Detroit backers, but can simply having a bye improve a Green Bay defense that currently ranks 28th in the league in total defense allowing 404.3 total yards per game and an identical 28th in passing defense at 311.0 yards? Green Bay may find a way to win straight up while being in a practically must-win mode, but the Lions should hang within a touchdown with Stafford exploiting that Packer pass defense and Bush adding some needed balance.

[gameodds]16/226933/?r-1=238-92-83-349-192/us[/gameodds]

Denver Broncos -7½ (+103) over Dallas Cowboys: We are usually not fans of giving this many points on the road, especially to a Dallas team that is 2-0 both straight up and ATS at home and 3-1 ATS overall. However, the Broncos have simply been on an entire different level than the rest of the league this season while averaging 44.8 points and they seem like legitimate threats to join the 1972 Miami Dolphins and 2007 New England Patriots with undefeated regular seasons. Peyton Manning has more zip on his passes this year than he did last season when he was coming off of a year of inactivity, and he has probably the best trio of wide receivers in the NFL to throw to in Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and Eric Decker, with the emergence of tight end Julius Thomas giving him yet another receiving option. And very quietly, Knowshon Moreno is averaging 5.2 yards per carry running the football. The Cowboys will obviously be sky high for this contest, but they just allowed 401 passing yards to Philip Rivers of the Chargers last week and they are now 27th in the league in passing defense surrendering 304.5 yards per game through the air, making this a nightmarish matchup for Dallas vs. Manning and his plethora of dangerous weapons.

[gameodds]16/226941/?r-1=238-92-83-349-192/us[/gameodds]

San Francisco 49ers -6 (-105) over Houston Texans: The 49ers have not exactly resembled defending NFC Champions to this point, mainly because of an abundance of injuries on defense, but we think they may have turned a corner last week when, faced with the prospect of possibly beginning the season 1-3, they went into St. Louis and dominated the Rams on the road 35-11 as they finally returned to what they do best, which is running the football. San Francisco rushed for 219 yards on 40 carries in the win with Frank Gore rushing for 153 of those yards on 20 totes. That great rushing attacked meant not much was asked of Colin Kaepernick, who was efficient while completing 15-of-23 passes for 167 yards and two touchdowns with no interceptions. When the Niners run the football that well, they remain one of the five best teams in the NFL and we get the sense that contest could be an omen of more big wins to come. On top of that, the 49ers have had extra preparation time with that game being on a Thursday. The Texans had that epic collapse vs. the Seahawks at home last week with Matt Schaub stupidly throwing that Pick Six with a little over two minutes left as Houston blew a 20-6 lead. Now, Houston still leads the NFL in total defense thanks to leading the league in passing defense, but they are only 23rd vs. the run allowing 113.2 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry so the Niners should be able to do what they do best.

[gameodds]16/226943/?r-1=238-92-83-349-192/us[/gameodds]

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