NFL Betting: 5-Pack of Week 4 Value Picks

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, September 27, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Friday, Sep. 27, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL plays for this Sunday to build your bankroll for Week 4, highlighted by the late afternoon affair between the Dallas Cowboys and the San Diego Chargers.

We are now at Week 4 of the 2013 NFL season, and it has been a great season for us so far as we are 19-6 YTD in the NFL with all of our plays posted free for the whole world to see on SBR Forum despite losing late with the ‘under’ on Thursday Night Football this week! Hopefully that late beat does not signify an omen of things to come, as we will continue to be here every week offering up our 5-Packs of NFL picks during the regular season.

That contest to kick off Week 4 featured the San Francisco 49ers easily disposing of the St. Louis Rams as three-point road favorites 35-11, with a breakaway 29-yard touchdown run by Kendall Hunter with the 49ers trying to run out the clock with four minutes left breaking the heart of ‘under’ players with the total set at 42½ .

Our Week 4 selections are comprised of four sides and one total, with the sides made up evenly of two favorites and two underdogs. As usual, all NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.

Sunday, September 29th
Seattle Seahawks, Houston Texans ‘under’ 41½ (-102): We expect a relatively low scoring affair in this matchup of two of the best defenses in the league. The Seahawks in fact probably have the best defense in the NFL, as they lead the league in scoring defense (9.0 points per game), total defense (241.7 yards per game) and passing defense while being only slightly vulnerable against the run where they rank 12th despite allowing only 95.0 rushing yards per contest. The Texans will probably not be able to accomplish much through the air with shaky quarterback Matt Schaub, but they do have one of the better running backs in the NFL in Arian Foster as well as probably the best backup running back in Ben Tate, so expect to see lots of running to help eat up the clock. Do not overlook the Houston defense either as that unit was certainly not to blame for the 30-9 loss to the Baltimore Ravens last week surrendering just 236 total yards while yielding only 75 rushing yards on 31 carries and limiting Joe Flacco to 171 passing yards. The Seahawks usually have a conservative, mistake-free offense while relying on their defense to win games, so the Texans should not have too much trouble containing Russell Wilson & Co. if they match their defensive effort of last week, especially with Seattle not being as good on the road.


Kansas City Chiefs -4 (-105) over New York Giants: Many people including ourselves expected the Chiefs to be much improved this year after finishing with the worst record in football at 2-14 last season, and they have not disappointed by already exceeding that win total with a 3-0 start under new coach Andy Reid and with a new quarterback Alex Smith orchestrating the offense. Smith may not be a game-changer, but he does not make many mistakes and has been a major reason why the Chiefs are +9 in the turnover department after three weeks after being a dismal -24 in that category last year. Meanwhile it has been a nightmare season for the 0-3 Giants, and that record in not a fluke as this team is dead last in the NFL in rushing offense with a mere 44.3 yards per game on the ground and it is 24th in total defense including 27th in rushing defense. The Chiefs can exploit that defense with the running and catching of running back Jamaal Charles, who had 172 all-purpose yards in Reid’s successful return to Philadelphia last Thursday that resulted in a 26-16 victory, which leads us to another edge home standing Kansas City has here in that it has had three extra days to prepare for a struggling Giants’ team that was embarrassed in a 38-0 road loss to the previously winless Carolina Panthers last Sunday.


Cleveland Browns +3½ (-103) over Cincinnati Bengals: The Browns were thought to be a team that had given up on this season when they unceremoniously and out of the blue traded the player believed to be the face of the franchise for many years to come in Trent Richardson last week less than two years after making him the third overall pick in the NFL Draft, and they then opted to start the third string quarterback on their depth chart Brian Hoyer on the road vs. the Minnesota Vikings last week. The result was a 31-27 upset victory for the Browns’ first win following an 0-2 start, with Hoyer passing for 321 yards and Josh Gordon being on the receiving end of 146 of those yards. The Browns could be a dangerous home underdog here primed for a second straight upset with the Bengals quite possibly being in a letdown spot after being sky high for a home meeting with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers last week where they jumped out to a 14-0 first-quarter lead, then allowed 30 unanswered points, and then showed some rare character by rallying for a 34-30 triumph in an emotional effort. It would be very easy for the Bengals to look past an “inferior” opponent like the Browns after a game like that, particularly with Tom Brady and the New England Patriots next on their schedule at home in Cincinnati.


Chicago Bears +3 (-108) over Detroit Lions: The wrong team may be favored in this contest, as while the Lions are off to a 2-1 start, they have yet to face a quality opponent and even lost to the Arizona Cardinals, while the Bears are a perfect 3-0 and have already won on the road by beating the Pittsburgh Steelers 40-23 in a Sunday night primetime game last week. The favored Lions’ two wins this season have come against a couple of winless teams in the 0-3 Minnesota Vikings and the 0-3 Washington Redskins, and even 1-2 Arizona is winless in its other games besides beating the Lions. Furthermore, Detroit was locked in a tight battle with Minnesota until the fourth quarter and it easily could have lost in the 27-20 win in Washington last week when the Redskins had a couple of empty trips into the red zone. Granted the Chicago defense has been disappointing despite the 3-0 record, but this could be the best Bears’ offense in a very long time as long as the Big Three of quarterback Jay Cutler, running back Matt Forte and wide receiver Brandon Marshall stay healthy. Granted, Marshall has had some back and hip issues this year, but they have not been severe enough to keep him out of any games and as a result the Bears are third in the NFL in scoring at 31.7 points per game. Look for Chicago to outscore Megatron & Co. to improve to 4-0.


Dallas Cowboys -1 (-115) over San Diego Chargers: Many people have been surprised by how competitive the San Diego Chargers have been in the early going, but we prefer to harp on the fact that the Chargers have still not learned how to close out games as they could easily be 3-0. San Diego blew a 28-7 third-quarter lead before losing 31-28 to the Houston Texans on Kickoff Weekend and it led for practically the entire game vs. the Tennessee Titans last week before losing 20-17 on a late Titan score. Yes, those two losses were sandwiched around a pulsating 33-30 win over the Philadelphia Eagles, but that was vs. one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Now, if this newfound fight the Chargers are exhibiting so far is not a mirage, then this could be a dangerous team whenever it is a decided underdog. The problem here however is that this game is closer to a Pick’em, where San Diego’s inability to close out should prove costly vs. a better team. The Cowboys come off of a complete performance in a 31-7 dismantling of St. Louis where they outgained the Rams by 164 total yards, thanks to a 175-yard rushing performance by DeMarco Murray on offense and a dominant game by DeMarcus Ware on defense that included two sacks, five solo tackles and one assist. Expect more of the same from Dallas in a nice road win here.


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