NFL Betting: 5-Pack of Week 3 Value Picks

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, September 20, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Friday, Sep. 20, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL plays for this Sunday to build your bankroll for Week 3, highlighted by the late afternoon affair between the Atlanta Falcons and the Miami Dolphins.

We have already reached Week 3 of the 2013 NFL season, and it has certainly been a great season for us so far as we are 14-3 YTD in the NFL with all of our plays posted free for the whole world to see on SBR Forum! Hopefully our run of good luck will continue as we will continue to be here every week offering up our 5-Packs of NFL picks during the regular season.

Week 3 kicked off on Thursday night with Coach Andy Reid taking his new team the Kansas City Chiefs to his old stomping grounds and upsetting his old team the Philadelphia Eagles 26-16 as a three-point underdog with that contest staying ‘under’ the posted total of 50.

For the third straight week we are going with five sides in this space this week, where we have yet to play a regular season total yet this year. Week 3 breaks down to three favorites and two underdogs for us, and as has become our norm, all NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.

Sunday, September 22nd
Arizona Cardinals +9 (-133) over New Orleans Saints: The Saints may be 2-0, but they have not looked like themselves offensively just yet while barely getting by the Atlanta Falcons 23-17 and especially the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16-14 on a last second field goal in a game where they scored just one touchdown and accumulated an un-Saints-like 371 total yards. Sure that is acceptable for most teams but remember New Orleans ranked second in the NFL behind New England last year with 411 yards per game and the Saints were actually expected to be better offensively this year with Coach Sean Payton back to call the plays. Meanwhile, it is the Cardinals that look to be much improved this season with their big off season acquisition Carson Palmer passing for 327 yards in a narrow 27-24 road loss to the St. Louis Rams opening week, and the team then overcoming a fourth quarter deficit last week without an injured Larry Fitzgerald in a 25-21 with over the Detroit Lions to give Bruce Arians his first win as the Arizona coach. Fitzgerald is now expected to be ready for this matchup, and just as importantly so is Rashard Mendenhall, who will be running against a New Orleans defense that ranks 27th in the NFL in run defense in the early going yielding 124 rushing yards per game on a whopping 5.3 yards per carry.


New England Patriots -8½ (+112) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Can it be that one of the most popular teams in the NFL, the New England Patriots, has become undervalued? We gladly cashed the ‘under’ last week when the Pats barely got by the New York Jets 13-10 in a game where it was obvious that Tom Brady was having a hard team connecting with his young receivers with so many starters out with injuries, but the oddsmakers may be over-compensating here as this would have been a double-digit spread prior to last week. Remember that New England played on a Thursday, so the Patriots have had about four extra days of preparation time for this game, a situation in which Coach Bill Belichick has always been dangerous. As for the Buccaneers, optimists will point to the fact that they could and maybe should be 2-0 instead of 0-2 this season, as they lost on last-second field goals on both occasions first the New York Jets thanks to a stupid late penalty putting the Jets in field goal range, and then to the New Orleans Saints on literally the game’s final play. However, we are more inclined to point out that the Bucs scored just one offensive touchdown vs. a suspect Saints’ defense and they rank 29th in the NFL in total offense. We expect the Patriots to look more like the Patriots offensively this week with the extra preparation time and Tampa Bay simply lacks the firepower to keep up.


San Diego Chargers +3 (+100) over Tennessee Titans: We said several times during the preseason that Philip Rivers could be primed for a nice bounce-back season, and under his guidance, the Chargers almost upset the Houston Texans opening week, blowing a 28-7 lead to lose 31-28, and then did upset the Philadelphia Eagles 33-30 last week with Rivers turning back the clock by scorching the Philadelphia secondary for 419 passing yards completing 36-of-47 with three touchdowns and no interceptions. On top of that, Rivers is a perfect 5-0 lifetime as a starter vs. the Titans with a passer rating of over 100 against them. Now, the Titans have looked good on the surface, completely shutting down the Pittsburgh Steelers to win 16-9 on Kickoff Weekend and then giving the Houston Texans all that they can handle before losing in overtime 30-24 last week. Before printing those Tennessee playoff tickets however, consider that the Steelers are dreadful offensively right now with a shortage of running backs and no speed at wide receiver, so that are not exactly difficult to defend. Then, Tennessee was outgained by 204 yards in the loss to Houston despite taking that game to overtime, as two interceptions by the Texans’ Matt Schaub including one run back for a touchdown helped the Titans’ cause.


Miami Dolphins -1 (-133) over Atlanta Falcons: Many experts saw the Dolphins as the biggest threat to the New England Patriots in the AFC East prior to the season, and Miami has not disappointed with nice road wins over the Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts to open the year, raising some optimism for the home opener this week. The Miami offense is not pretty, but quarterback Ryan Tannehill has been efficient while completing 65.3 percent of his passes and averaging 276.0 passing yards through two weeks on a good 7.7 yards per pass attempt. He can now have continued success vs. an Atlanta defense allowing 346.5 passing yards per game on 7.7 yards per attempt and that is without linebacker Sean Weatherspoon. Perhaps most notable in this game though is Atlanta running back Steven Jackson being out. That should allow the excellent Miami defensive line led by Cameron Wake to tee off on Matt Ryan without much fear of the Atlanta running duo of Jacquizz Rodgers and Jason Snelling, and they will do so vs. a very suspect Atlanta offensive line. Yes the Falcons still have Julio Jones on the outside, and he can stretch any defense, but Ryan may not get enough time to find him without having a reliable running game to keep the Miami defense honest and slow down the pass rush, which is where Jackson will be sorely missed.


Chicago Bears -1 (-115) over Pittsburgh Steelers: We would have been very reluctant to go against the Pittsburgh Steelers as home underdogs in previous seasons, but this 2013 version will struggle to score points all year unless some changes are made, as the Steelers are extremely thin at running back right now and they lack break-away speed at wide receiver. It could help that tight end Heath Miller, a favorite security blanket of Ben Roethlisberger, may be back this week, but who knows what he will have for his 2013 debut coming off of both a serious knee injury and a career year. Pittsburgh is ranked second to last in the NFL in total offense ahead of only the horrible Jacksonville Jaguars, and we really do not foresee much improvement in the foreseeable future. The Bears meanwhile are 2-0 but have yet to cover a spread as they got by the Cincinnati Bengals 24-21 and the Minnesota Vikings 31-30. While the defense has not performed to Chicago’s past standards, the Steelers are so bad offensively right now that they can make any defense look good, such as when they scored nine points vs. the Tennessee Titans in Week 1. As long as the Bears’ offense continues to perform it has, they should score more than enough points to get the road win here.


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