NFL Betting: 5-Pack of Week 2 Value Picks

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, September 13, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Friday, Sep. 13, 2013 4:00 AM UTC

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL plays for this Sunday to build your bankroll for Week 2, highlighted by the late afternoon Manning Bowl between the Broncos and Giants.

What a great way to kick off the 2013 NFL season as we went a perfect 5-0 right here in this space last week, and we are now actually a perfect 9-0 YTD in NFL after Thursday’s results, all posted free for the whole world to see on SBR Forum! Hopefully our run of good luck will continue as we will be here every week offering up our 5-Packs of NFL picks during the regular season.

Week 2 kicked off on Thursday night with the New England Patriot excruciatingly eking out a 13-10 win over the New York Jets as the depleted Patriot receiving corps simply did not allow Tom Brady to perform to the best of his abilities, with Julian Edelman his only reliable receiver all night as the other young receivers either had the dropsies or ran wrong routes. The Patriots failed to cover as 10½-point favorites in a game that easily stayed ‘under’ the 43.

After going against our normal nature by taking five favorites last week (although the results validated us doing so), we have three favorites and two underdogs this week, although we have no totals for the second straight week. As has become our norm, all NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.

Sunday, September 15h
Atlanta Falcons -6 (-106) over St. Louis Rams: The Falcons have not lost back-to-back games since 2009, and they are 10-2-1 ATS during the regular season off of a straight up loss since then. We do not see that about to change here following a 23-17 loss to the New Orleans Saints last week. The Falcons did accumulate 376 total yards in the defeat, and that was while getting practically nothing from hobbled receiver Roddy White, who is attempting to play through a high ankle sprain. Atlanta’s big off-season acquisition Steven Jackson totaled 122 all-purpose yards, and he is one Falcon looking forward to this contest facing his ex-teammates after spending his entire NFL career with the Rams up to this point. Do not overlook the Atlanta defense limiting the high-octane Saints to 23 points either, as the defense should have an easier time this week. The Rams failed to cover the spread in a 27-24 win over the Arizona Cardinals, and allowing 390 total yards to a pedestrian Arizona offense including 327 passing yards by Carson Palmer is a bad omen for this week. While we have a great deal of respect for the St. Louis front seven, we expect Matt Ryan to follow Palmer’s lead and torch the Rams’ secondary, allowing the Falcons to score enough points for this cover.


Tennessee Titans +9 (-108) over Houston Texans: The Texans are picked by some to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, but they certainly did not fit that billing in Week 1 when Houston needed to rally from a 28-7 third-quarter deficit to get by a poor San Diego Chargers team 31-28. Furthermore there may be some internal friction at the running back position as Ben Tate literally waved Arian Foster off the field when Coach Gary Kubiak inserted Foster for Tate in the middle of a fourth quarter drive. Thankfully Tate enjoys his paycheck, so he reluctantly acquiesced and left the field, although he was one unhappy camper. Now, we felt before the season that the Tennessee defense would be dramatically improved after allowing the most points in the NFL last year, but even we were pleasantly surprised when the Titans held the Pittsburgh Steelers to less than 200 total yards and held their offensive unit without a point until the final 90 seconds of a 16-9 upset win. The Titans resembled, well, the Texans last week, playing stiff defense and controlling the clock on offense with the running game as Tennessee held the ball for about 10 more minutes than Pittsburgh did, thank to 112 rushing yards. Some may feel that the Texans will improve off of last week’s performance in their home opener, but we see Tennessee employing a similar game plan as last week and their improved defense should help take this game down to the wire, making these points worth taking.


New Orleans Saints -3 (-104) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Tampa Bay Buccaneers appeared to secure an opening week victory over the New York Jets when Ryan Lindell kicked the go-ahead field goal with 34 seconds remaining, but a few plays and a 15-yard personal foul on Lavonte David later, it was the Jets who were in field goal range and Nick Folk nailed it to deal the Buccaneers a heart-breaking 18-17 defeat. The bottom line though was that the Bucs probably did not deserve to win based on their offensive performance, as they managed a measly 250 total yards. Quarterback Josh Freeman completed only 15-of-31 passes for 210 yards and star running back Doug Martin could only gain 65 yards on his 24 carries, accounting for the team’s entire rushing total. We simply do not see Tampa Bay matching points with Drew Brees & Co. here, not even at home. That is especially true considering that the New Orleans defense defended the run better last week that it probably did all of last year, limiting the Atlanta Falcons to 88 rushing yards in a 23-17 victory, and stuffing Martin is usually all that is needed to shut down the Tampa Bay offense. Brees was his usual self in Week 1 passing for 347 yards and two touchdowns, and he is facing a Tampa Bay secondary that allowed Geno Smith to pass for 256 yards in his first NFL game.


Detroit Lions -1 (-117) over Arizona Cardinals: As we said last week, we feel that the Lions are undervalued right now following their disastrous 4-12 season of a year ago as this team has talent in both sides of the ball, and so far so good as we cashed with the Lions -5 last week in a 34-24 win over the Minnesota Vikings. Reggie Bush may be the most important acquisition in the NFL this year as he gives Detroit balance after it got nothing from the running game last season, and he impressed in his Lion debut with 191 all purpose yards and a 77-yard touchdown reception that extended Detroit’s lead to 10 points. Granted, the Lions lost to Arizona 38-10 as six-point road favorite here in this stadium last year, but the Cardinals had an easy time then defending a one-dimensional Detroit passing offense. They must now deal with a balanced attack and Bush is hard to defend because he lines up all over the field, and the Arizona defense was not particularly impressive while allowed 27 points and 366 yards to a mediocre St. Louis Rams offense in Week 1. We do not expect the Cards’ Carson Palmer to duplicate his 327 passing yards either, as the shaky Arizona offensive line figures to have a tough time controlling a good Detroit pass rush that had three sacks last week.


New York Giants +4½ (-115) over Denver Broncos: The two biggest passing performances of Week 1 were both by a quarterback named Manning, as Peyton tied an NFL record with seven touchdown passes while throwing for 462 yards, and younger brother Eli was not far behind with 450 passing yards. The brothers meet in the Manning Bowl on Sunday and we think that the home standing Giants make intriguing underdogs in this spot. While the Broncos defeated the Super Bowl Champion Baltimore Ravens 49-27, Baltimore was unable to exploit a suspect Denver pass defense with Torrey Smith as its only deep threat on the outside. The Giants on the other hand are very deep at the wide receiver position and their two starters Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks would both be stand-alone number one receivers on most NFL teams. The Denver defense will again be without Champ Bailey and Von Miller, and New York has the firepower to put up points with Eli getting his receivers the ball. The Giants also seem like the team better equipped to have some offensive balance, as they resigned Brandon Jacobs this week to mostly serve as the third down back and help in pass protection, an area where David Wilson was awful last week. With that responsibility lifted, we expect Wilson to relax while solely concentrating on running the football and that could do wonders in eliminating his fumble-itis.


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