NFL Betting: 5-Pack of Week 17 Value Picks

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, December 27, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Friday, Dec. 27, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL plays for this Sunday to build your bankroll for Week 17, highlighted by the late afternoon game between the Denver Broncos and Oakland Raiders.

Well, here we are at the final week of the NFL regular season, and in truth there are many more playoff spots up for grabs than usual as the Kansas City Chiefs are the only playoff team locked into their seeding as the five-seed in the AFC, and thus the only team basically assured to be pulling or resting its starters. That made selecting our 5-Pack of NFL Picks a bit easier this Week 17 with almost every team playing at full strength.

Also, every game this final week is a divisional game, as has become customary in the NFL in recent seasons, and the league did a good job for the most part of playing games where the results are correlated simultaneously, further forcing coaches to leave their starters in the game.

Our 5-Pack for Week 17 is composed of nothing but sides, and, against out normal nature, four of those sides are favorites. As has become our norm, all NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.

Sunday, December 29th
Tennessee Titans -7 (-105) over Houston Texans: Do you remember when the Houston Texans were picked by many experts to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl prior to the season? Right, we don’t either! Things looked promising when the Texans got off to a 2-0 start, but they have since unbelievably lost 13 consecutive games, and instead of going to the Super Bowl, Houston can instead clinch the top overall pick of the NFL Draft with another loss to finish 2-14. Even worse, the Texans have not even been competitive much of the time while going 3-12 ATS thus far, and they could just as easily be 0-15 right now, as if you recall their two wins, they kicked a field goal on the final play of regulation time to beat the Chargers on opening night, and they needed overtime to beat these Titans 30-24 in Week 2. On top of that, the Texans actually gave an honest effort last week and trailed the mighty Broncos just 16-13 early in the fourth quarter. They do not figure to have nearly as much energy for this contest. The Titans probably would not mind getting revenge for being one of the Texans’ two victims, and to their credit they have continued to play hard since getting eliminated from playoff contention, as in the last two weeks, they took Arizona to overtime when the Cardinals were still alive for the playoffs and then beat the Jaguars.


Pittsburgh Steelers -7 (+102) over Cleveland Browns: The Steelers need a miraculous combination of results to incredibly qualify for the playoffs following an 0-4 start to the year, but even though that outlook is bleak, the Steelers continue to show their pride such as going into Green Bay last week and beating a desperate Packers team that is also trying to qualify for the post-season. Pittsburgh has been able to go back to playing power football since the emergence of rookie running back Le’Veon Bell, and as a result they are 5-2 straight up and 6-1 ATS in the last seven games. Unfortunately, the lone loss, which came at home to the Miami Dolphins, may prove fatal given the Dolphins can now eliminate Pittsburgh with a win this week. Still, the Steelers should at least be able to hold up their end as Bell should have continued success vs. a Cleveland run defense that has not played as well since losing top run-stopper Desmond Bryant. Now the Browns have one of the best wide receivers in the NFL in Josh Gordon, but unfortunately they have very little else to offer. The first meeting vs. the Steelers this season was a microcosm of the Cleveland season, as Gordon had 237 receiving yards on a whopping 14 catches, yet the Browns still produced just 11 points in the 27-11 loss back in Cleveland.


Miami Dolphins -5½ (-105) over New York Jets: The Dolphins controlled their own playoff destiny before inexplicably not showing up for a date in Buffalo last week, getting shut out 19-0. Of course, part of the problem was that the Miami defense could not get off the field as the Bills rushed for 203 yards and held the ball for 13 more minutes than the Dolphins. And in the limited time that Miami did have the ball, quarterback Ryan Tannehill was usually running for his life behind his porous offensive line, and usually unsuccessfully as he absorbed seven sacks. In fact, those seven sacks were more than the pathetic six first downs the Dolphins gained in the entire game! However, the news is much more encouraging for the Dolphins in this game. First of all, the Jets as not good as Buffalo at pressuring the quarterback, as they are ranked 11th in the league with 41 sacks. Secondly, the Jets have one of the worst secondaries in the NFL while ranking 30th out of 32 teams in passing defense, so Tannehill will have a better chance of finding his receivers Mike Wallace and Brian Hartline downfield. Tannehill was only sacked once and passed for an impressive 331 yards in a 23-3 rout of the Jets the first time these teams met this season in New Jersey.


Minnesota Vikings -3 (+111) over Detroit Lions: This will most likely be the last game as Detroit Lions Coach for Jim Schwartz as the team has collapsed going 1-5 in the last six game after seeming to certainly be playoff bound following a 6-3 start, and on top of that Calvin Johnson is doubtful for this contest, so we do not envision Detroit playing will too much enthusiasm here after getting eliminated from playoff contention with two home losses to the Ravens and Giants the last two weeks. It is amazing how ordinary Matthew Stafford looks as a quarterback when Megatron is not on the field and the rest of the team has now probably quit on its lame-duck coach. And the Vikings have actually played pretty good football as of late with their 42-14 blowout loss at Cincinnati last week notwithstanding. In the four previous games, the Vikings posted blew out the Eagles and beat the Bears, the tied the Packers in Lambeau Field and they lost by just three points at Baltimore to the Ravens in a game with there were several lead changes late. Minnesota has also been very stout defending the run lately, allowing just 85.7 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry the last three weeks, so they could contain Reggie Bush and leave the Lions with fewer offensive options if Johnson does sit as expected.


Oakland Raiders +11 (-117) over Denver Broncos: The Broncos can lock up home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win in this regular season finale, although they almost put more pressure on themselves when leading the 2-13 Houston Texans just 16-13 entering the fourth quarter last week before a 21-0 final stanza. Still, despite winning on the scoreboard, the Broncos did have one huge loss on the field with one of the best defensive players in the NFL Von Miller tearing his ACL. While Peyton Manning and the entire Denver offense has been getting most of the publicity, what has often been overlooked is how much improved the Denver defense was since Miller came back from his six-week suspension in Week 7, and now that he is out, it could be a huge blow to the Broncos’ Super Bowl hopes. And even with Miller, the Broncos have not been nearly as dominant as of late as they were earlier in the season. The Raiders have named Terrelle Pryor the starting quarterback for this game, and he played very well vs. the Broncos without Miller when these clubs met early in the season, completing 19-of-28 passes for 281 yards. And that was in the altitude of Denver, so Pryor could spur the Raiders on to a cover as a double-digit home underdog in the season’s final game.


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