NFL Betting: 5-Pack of Week 16 Value Picks

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, December 20, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Friday, Dec. 20, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL plays for this Sunday to build your bankroll for Week 16, highlighted by the late afternoon game between the Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks.

Sadly we are nearing the end of the 2013 NFL regular season as we have already reached Week 16, meaning that each team has just two games left. The good news as that even at this late stage of the year, there are still plenty of playoff positions to be determined, so these final two games should not be lacking in any drama. And as usual, we will continue to be here with our 5-Packs of NFL Picks every week.

For the first time this season, there are no weeknight games to report on this week as Week 15 was the final week of Thursday Night Football. Thus, the Monday Night game this coming week will be the only game not played on Sunday, and then next week there will be nothing but Sunday games in Week 17.

But back to the present and moving on to this Sunday, we again have three sides and two totals for Week 16. Our three sides are all underdog plays, while the two total are split between one ‘over’ and one ‘under’. As has become our usual custom, all NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.

Sunday, December 22nd
New Orleans Saints, Carolina Panthers ‘over’ 46½ (-105): These teams met two weeks ago in Carolina with the Saints winning convincingly 31-13. Yes, New Orleans followed that up by losing 27-16 to the Rams in St. Louis, but that game meant close to nothing as the Saints can clinch the NFC South with a win here, so last week’s result can almost be ignored. The bigger issue is will the Saints be able to put up points on the road, where they have traditionally struggled much more than they have at home. Well, the good news there is that the temperatures could be in the 70s in Charlotte on Sunday. The Panthers rebounded from the loss in New Orleans by beating the Jets 30-20 at here at home last week, and we expect Carolina to score more points in this rematch than the first meeting now that Cam Newton can actually be heard calling out his signals, which was often not the case in the noisy Superdome. While it is true that great defense has carried Carolina to nine wins in the last 10 games with the Saints’ loss being the only blemish, the Panthers have also scored at least 27 points in six of those nine wins. Plus both offenses may delve deep into their respective playbooks with a division title on the line.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4 (-107) over St. Louis Rams: Last week, the Rams upset the playoff bound New Orleans Saints 27-16 here at the Edward Jones Dome thanks to 133 rushing yards by Zac Stacy, while the Buccaneers lost fairly big 33-14 to the 49ers. However those two results could actually be combining to give the underdogs Bucs good value here! For starters, the Rams’ win was not quite what it seemed as the Saints were almost undoubtedly already game planning for this week’s huge game vs. the Panthers for the NFC South title. Also, from the Rams’ perspective, they were fully motivated for that game with an opportunity to knock off a playoff team and they will probably have a tough time matching that energy this week vs. an also-ran. More importantly, they may not have as easy a time establishing Stacy and the running game, as the Saints have a weak rushing defense while the Bucs allow a much more respectable 109.6 rushing yards per game. The final score in the Tampa Bay game last week was also a bit deceiving as the Bucs were receiving the football down by only nine points at 23-14 with a little over four minutes left where a touchdown drive would have allowed the Buccaneers to cover the spread as five-point underdogs, but they botched an attempted reverse on the kickoff return and the Niners’ Kendall Hunter ran the fumble in for a touchdown from just two yards out to break the hearts of Tampa Bay bettors and also break the Bucs’ spirit. Tampa is facing no such powerful foe here.


Arizona Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks ‘under’ 43 (-104): The Seahawks will be the top seed in the NFC in the playoffs while the Cardinals just hope to get there, which would be a monumental task despite the 9-5 Arizona record because it would almost certainly need to include a win in this game in the loudest stadium in the universe where Seattle is 6-0 this season and 14-0 since the beginning of last year. The Seahawks already have the best defense in football, but that defense takes it to another level when playing at CenturyLink Field while feeding off of the energy of an incredibly raucous home crowd. While there is no doubt that the Cardinals are up against it here, one thing that they do have is a great defense of their own that can keep them in this game and quiet the crowd when the Seahawks have the ball. The Cardinals are seventh in the NFL in total defense and they lead the league in rushing defense allowing just 83.2 yards per game on the ground, so they at least seem equipped the slow down the Seattle beast of a running back in Marshawn Lynch, which would be the first step to pulling a huge upset. The problem though as we are not comfortable with Carson Palmer being the guy to lead Arizona to too many scoring drives in this environment. With that said, the defense should do enough to keep this game ‘under’.


Oakland Raiders +10 (-118) over San Diego Chargers: The Chargers kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a shocking upset of the Broncos in Denver last week, but they then witnessed the worst possible combination of results possible for them following their upset with two more unwanted upsets that saw the Miami Dolphins knock off the Patriots on Sunday and the Baltimore Ravens win at Detroit on Monday. That means that the only way the Chargers can possibly make the playoffs now is if they win both of their remaining games while Miami and Baltimore both lose both of their remaining games. Well, good luck with that! Furthermore the Dolphins play at Buffalo at 1:00 ET Sunday, so it is possible that the Chargers could be eliminated either before or a few minutes after this opening kick-off. And if that in itself does not make things dicey enough to give this many points in this spot, consider that the Raiders won the first meeting between these teams 27-17 in Oakland and that they actually rank ninth in the NFL in rushing defense. A major key to the Chargers’ revival in recent weeks has been the running of Ryan Matthews to give the San Diego offense balance, and the underdog Raiders are fully capable of taking that away.


Chicago Bears +3 (-103) over Philadelphia Eagles: The Bears will almost certainly need to win this game to hold on to their NFC North Division lead, as the Detroit Lions are heavy home favorites earlier in the day over the Giants and even the Packers have a nice chance at home vs. the Steelers. As for the Eagles, coming off of a very surprising loss to the Vikings at Minnesota where they allowed 48 points to a team with Matt Asiata as the starting running back, there is a very good chance that this could turn out to be a meaningless game for them. All that is required for that to happen is for the Dallas Cowboys to beat Washington early in the day, and if that happens, this would be like an exhibition game for Philadelphia where it could pull the starters after a few series. That is because with the Eagles having a one-game lead over the Cowboys but with Dallas winning the first head-to-head meeting this year, a win by Dallas over the Redskins would ensure that next week’s showdown between the Eagles and Cowboys would be for the NFC East title, regardless of the result of this game. With that in mind, you may want to lock into the Bears at +3 here early and then hope that the favored Cowboys hold up their end.


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