NFL Betting: 5-Pack of Week 15 Value Picks

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, December 13, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Friday, Dec. 13, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL plays for this Sunday to build your bankroll for Week 15, highlighted by the late afternoon game between the Arizona Cardinals and Tennessee Titans.

Here we are at Week 15 of the 2013 NFL season already, with only three weeks left in the regular season and many playoff positions yet to be determined. We hate seeing this season fly by this quickly as we are a solid 64-50-2, +11.24 units year-to-date in NFL with all of our picks posted free for the world to see on SBR Forum! Hopefully that good fortune continues through the final three weeks we will continue to be here with our 5-Packs of NFL Picks.

Our most recent winner came on the Thursday Night Football contest that began this week as we cashed in with the San Diego Chargers +10½, although not even we could have predicted that they would upset the mighty Denver Broncos outright, which they did by a 27-20 count. It was probably a very good night for the sportsbooks, as besides that huge outright upset, the final score stayed safely ‘under’ the closing total of 56½.

Moving on to Sunday, just like last week, we again have three sides and two totals for Week 15. And also just like last week, our plays are again contrarian in nature as we are going with three underdogs and two ‘unders’. As per the norm, all NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.

Sunday, December 15th
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4½ (-105) over San Francisco 49ers: This seems like a big letdown spot for the 49ers after their big statement win last week over the team with the best record in the NFL in the Seattle Seahawks, and having to fly all the way across the country to play an early 1:00 ET (10:00am PT) game certainly does not help matters. Granted the Niners have not yet sealed a playoff spot officially, but the huge 19-17 triumph last week gets them one stop closer and the result of this game has surprisingly minimal impact on their position as everything will probably come down to a head-to-head meeting with the Arizona Cardinals at the end of the season regardless, especially with a seemingly easy home game vs. Atlanta next week. Do not look now but the Buccaneers have actually been playing some inspired football lately for Greg Schiano, who was thought to be on the hot seat earlier in the year. The Bucs have gone 4-1 since an 0-8 start with the lone loss being a forgivable one at Carolina, and Tampa Bay comes off of a 27-6 throttling of the Buffalo Bills last week. It will be interesting to see how the Bucs’ eighth ranked rushing defense performs vs. Frank Gore & Co.


New York Giants +7 (-113) over Seattle Seahawks: The Seahawks are coming off of their second loss of the season and they too are making a cross-country trip to play an early kick-off. Now some may expect a bounce-back effort here, but the fact is this game really does not mean that much to Seattle as it has the top seed in the NFC basically under wraps with two home games vs. Arizona and St. Louis remaining after this East Coast trek. Sure the Seahawks may have the best defense in the NFL, but rather quietly the Giants are now up to 10th in the NFL in total defense after just a dreadful start to the year on that side of the ball, and that is even after practically taking the day off in a 37-14 loss at San Diego last week. Granted the Giants are no longer playoff contenders, but they should be able to get up for this game vs. a 12-2 team as this is probably their last hurrah for the season with uninteresting games vs. the Lions and Redskins left on the schedule. The Giants have run the ball much better since Andre Brown came back from his broken leg, and he should be a big key to this cover as the Seahawks have a great pass defense with probably the best secondary in the league, but they can be run on a bit allowing an quite ordinary 4.2 yards per rush.


Chicago Bears, Cleveland Browns ‘under’ 44 (-106): This has the potential to be a much lower scoring game than this total indicates. Yes, we know that the Bears have the worst rushing defense known to man, ranking dead last in the NFL allowing a ghastly 157.0 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry. Chicago catches a break here though because the Browns are one of the few teams that do not have anyone to exploit that major weakness. Willis McGahee will miss this contest with a concussion after literally getting knocked unconscious briefly on the field last week during a devastating 27-26 loss to the Patriots in New England where the Pats scored two touchdowns in the final minute, thanks to recovering an onside kick and a questionable pass interference call in the end zone before the final score. The absence or McGahee leaves Cleveland with a running tandem of Chris Ogbonnaya and Fozzy Whittaker. Good luck with that! On the other side of the ball, the Browns continue to have one of the more underrated defenses in the league ranking seventh in the NFL in total defense, fourth in rushing defense and eighth in passing defense. It is against that unit that Jay Cutler is making his return under center for Da Bears, and you probably do not want a somewhat rusty quarterback passing against a secondary that includes Joe Haden.


Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars ‘under’ 43 (-105): This looks like an ugly matchup on paper between two teams playing out the string, but that is precisely the point as we do not expect that much scoring in here, or more accurately, less scoring than this posted total. The Bills were playing teams tough early in the season but they now seem to be going nowhere fast while losing five of their last six games while beating only the Jets. Buffalo has gotten erratic quarterback play from rookie E.J. Manuel, but the running game has been solid as the Bills are fifth in the NFL in rushing offense thanks to the two-headed running monster of C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson. Unfortunately that fine running has not translated to too many points as the Bills are 25th in the league with 21.0 points per game. That running should allow Buffalo to eat up a lot of clock though. Despite its offensive struggles, Buffalo is actually a small road favorite here, which speaks volumes about the opponents from Jacksonville. Actually, the Jaguars have been playing much better since their 0-8 start as they have won four of their last five games including their last three in a row. However, they could be without Maurice Jones-Drew here and they have practically nothing behind him these days.


Tennessee Titans +2½ (+104) over Arizona Cardinals: The surprising Arizona Cardinals refuse to go away in the playoff chase as they remain just one game out of a playoff spot with three weeks to go, but they are still a team that is just 2-4 on the road and we simply do not trust the Cardinals in this role of road favorites. Yes Arizona has won five of its last six games overall but four of those wins came at home and the fifth was at Jacksonville, and they are not facing such a weak team here. And besides that, this is not the best of scheduling situations for Arizona as it is a road favorite in this non-conference game with two important divisional battles coming up at Seattle and vs. San Francisco at home to finish out the season. Granted the Titans are 5-8, but they have played much better than that and even their 51-28 loss to the Denver Broncos last week was a deceptive score as Tennessee led 21-20 at halftime. The Titans have an effective running back tandem of Chris Johnson and Shonn Greene that is capable of keeping them in any game, and this contest is no exception, especially with this game in Nashville.


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