NFL Betting: 5-Pack of Week 14 Value Picks

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, December 6, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Friday, Dec. 6, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL plays for this Sunday to build your bankroll for Week 14, highlighted by the late afternoon game between the Seattle Seahawks and San Francisco 49ers.

We have now reached Week 14 of the 2013 NFL season, meaning that a season that seems like it has just began is now in its stretch run with teams jockeying for playoff position with only four weeks remaining in the year. And as usual, we will continue to be here with our 5-Packs of NFL Picks every week during the regular season.

This week began with a mild upset on Thursday Night Football with the Jacksonville Jaguars, a team that began this season at 0-8, winning for the fourth time in the last five games while handing the disappointing Houston Texas their 11th straight loss as three-point underdogs. The final score in that game of 27-20 snuck ‘over’ the closing total of 43½.

Now on to Sunday where we have three sides and two totals. We have also returned to our more contrarian nature this week as all three of our sides are underdogs and both of our total plays are on the ‘under’. As has become the norm, all NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.

Sunday, December 8th
Minnesota Vikings +7 (-115) over Baltimore Ravens: The Vikings may be winless on the road at 0-5-1 straight up, but they have been competitive during their current 4-1 ATS run with the only non-cover coming at Seattle, which is certainly forgivable, and this streak includes road covers in a 27-23 loss at Dallas and a 26-26 tie at Green Bay. Of course, having Adrian Peterson in the backfield always gives you a chance to compete and he had 211 rushing yards last week in a 23-20 home overtime win over the Chicago Bears, marking his fifth career 200-yard rushing game. The Ravens have not resembled defending Super Bowl Champions this season, although they have now won two straight games to get back to .500 at 6-6. However, three of their last four wins have been by three points or less including the 22-20 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thanksgiving night, and a lot of pressure has been placed on Joe Flacco and the passing game this season with Baltimore ranking 30th in the NFL in rushing at 81.1 yards per game and dead last in yards per carry at a meager 2.9! And it is not as if Flacco is putting up monstrous numbers without any run support either, as he has only completed 59.8 percent of his passes, is averaging just 6.8 yards per pass attempt and has a poor ratio of 14 interceptions vs. 15 touchdown passes.


Miami Dolphins +3 (+109) over Pittsburgh Steelers: While Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is obviously the more accomplished signal caller between these two teams, Ryan Tannehill has now had back-to-back 300-yard games after completing 28-of-43 passes for 331 yards in a 23-3 romp over the New York Jets in New Jersey last week. That just goes to show what Tannehill is capable of when given time to throw, which has not usually been the case this season playing behind a porous Miami offensive line that has surrendered the most sacks in the NFL with 46. He has alluded the pass rush rather successfully the last two weeks though and perhaps the best news of all for the Dolphins’ offense is that he is finally developing a rapport with Mike Wallace, who has his own motivation here with the former Steeler making his first trip to Pittsburgh as a visiting player, as he had 12 catches for 209 yards and two touchdowns in those last two games. The Steelers have their own offensive line issues having allowed 37 sacks, and the Dolphins seems to have the better front seven between these two teams that is more equipped to take advantage of the opponent’s weak line as the Miami defense is fifth in the NFL with 37 sacks. Comparatively Pittsburgh is just 27th with 25.


Tennessee Titans +12 (-111) over Denver Broncos: This may look like a blowout on paper, but it might be too many points for the Broncos to be giving to a Tennessee team that has been surprisingly competitive on the road this year and that needs this win to keep its fading playoff hopes alive. In fact, the Titans were a perfect 5-0 ATS on the road this season including outright wins at Pittsburgh, St. Louis and Oakland before failing to cover in a 22-14 loss at Indianapolis last week, and Tennessee had that game covered until a touchdown run by Donald Brown with less than two minutes remaining. The Titans have an enigmatic running back in Chris Johnson who can look like one of the best running backs in the NFL on his “good” days, and this could potentially be one of them with the Denver defense struggling against the run as of late, allowing 109.4 rushing yards per game over the last five contests while allowing at least 92 rushing yards in every one of those games. The Broncos obviously have the most explosive offense in the league, but they may not be at their best here given this scheduling spot. Denver could be in a natural letdown situation after probably clinching the AFC West with a big road win at Kansas City last week, giving the Broncos the tiebreaker advantage if it comes to that by virtue of the season sweep, and they have a divisional game up next vs. San Diego.


Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers ‘under’ 41½ (-108): These were believed to be the two best defenses in the NFL when this season began, and the Seahawks have certainly held up their end of the bargain while leading the NFL in total defense and ranking second in scoring defense yielding just 15.5 points per game. The perception has been that the San Francisco defense is not quite on par with the 49ers’ defenses of recent season however, and while that may be true, the Niners are still ranked fifth in total defense and third in points allowed at 16.4 points per game. Furthermore, the reason for some early season struggles was a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and with the 49ers now as healthy as they have been all year, they have allowed a total of 19 points in the last two games and they did not allow a touchdown in either contest until the St. Louis Rams put a meaningless score on the board with 18 seconds left in a 23-13 San Francisco win last Sunday. Moreover, both of these defenses have performed better against the pass than against the run, so expect to see heavy doses of Marshawn Lynch for the Seahawks and Frank Gore for the 49ers, helping to lead to time-consuming drives.


St. Louis Rams, Arizona Cardinals ‘under’ 41½ (-104): This is a matchup of two underrated defenses and we do not expect to see 51 points scored again like in the 27-24 win by the Rams when this teams met way back on opening week this season. That becomes doubly true when you consider that St. Louis is only ranked 25th in the league in total offense and Arizona is not much better ranking 18th. Yes, the Rams had total 80 points while winning their previous two games before getting shut down by the 49ers last week, but many of those points were as a result of the defense and special teams. One highlight for the Rams offensively has been the emergence of Zac Stacy as the lead running back, but he faces a tough task here vs. an Arizona team that is ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing defense allowing only 83.2 yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry. That defense is the main reason Arizona is still in the playoff hunt, as the offensive line is still porous and quarterback Carson Palmer has had a nasty tendency to turn the ball over when faced with pressure. And he should face pressure here from a Sr. Louis defense that is ranked sixth in the league in sacks.


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