NFL Betting: 5-Pack of Week 13 Value Picks

LT Profits Sports Group

Friday, November 29, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Friday, Nov. 29, 2013 5:00 AM UTC

Here is a 5-Pack of NFL plays for this Sunday to build your bankroll for Week 13, highlighted by the late afternoon game between the St. Louis Rams and San Francisco 49ers.

We have arrived at Week 13 of a 2013 NFL season that has gone by far too quickly, meaning that we are getting down to the nitty gritty with teams either trying to win their divisions, trying to make the playoffs or jockeying for playoff position. And as usual, we will be here with our 5-Packs of NFL Picks every week of the regular season.

This week began with three games on Thanksgiving Day where while the three favorites went 3-0 straight up, it was the underdogs that went 2-1 ATS as the Oakland Raiders and Pittsburgh Steelers both scored late to gain the backdoor covers. The public did well on the totals however with all three contests going ‘over’ the total.

We now move on to Sunday where we have a little bit of everything this week. We have three sides comprised of two favorites and one underdog, as well as two totals split between one ‘over’ and one ‘under’. As has become our custom, all NFL odds come from Pinnacle Sports.

Sunday, December 1st
Indianapolis Colts -3½ (-107) over Tennessee Titans: This seems like a cheap line considering that the Colts were favored by three points on the road when these teams met at Tennessee two weeks ago and gained the ‘push’ in a 30-27 victory. So what happened last week to shift this line the equivalent of nearly six points on a neutral field? Well, the Colts travelled to Arizona and got lambasted 40-11. Still, to put that loss in perspective, it was a non-conference game and Indianapolis entered that game with a three-game lead over these Titans in the AFC South. In other words, that game meant practically nothing to the Colts as they can basically wrap up the division by beating Tennessee here at home to complete the season sweep. Also, while the Colts finished 2-2 vs. the NFC this year, they are 4-2 in the more important conference games and 3-0 inside the division, so they have risen to the occasion when they have needed to. We see no reason why this game should be any different, and the best part is we are catching Indianapolis at a bargain price in a classic “buy low” situation. And no, the fact that Tennessee rallied late to beat the Oakland Raiders last week is not enough for us to believe it can elevate its game for this crucial divisional battle.


Chicago Bears, Minnesota Vikings ‘over’ 50 (-108): The Bears are still in the hunt for the division title in the NFC North, but their defense could hold them back and the Vikings are having issues in their defensive secondary, so both offenses have a chance to succeed in this contest. Yes, Minnesota has gotten weak quarterback play from Christian Ponder, although he did look good vs. the Green Bay Packers last week while completing 21-of-30 passes for 233 yards, but the key here is their great running back Adrian Peterson, who went off for 146 yards vs. the Pack with backup Tony Gerhart adding 91 rushing yards. That running can carry the Minnesota offense vs. a Chicago team that is dead last in the NFL in rushing defense allowing 145.2 yards per game on an ugly 4.9 yards per carry. The Bears meanwhile are averaging 27.5 points per game and Josh McCown has continued to do a fine job at quarterback while filling in for the injured Jay Cutler. You cannot blame McCown for the 42-21 loss to the Rams last week as he completed 36-of-47 passes for 352 yards and two touchdowns. He should be able to attack the 29th ranked Minnesota passing defense allowing 282.5 yards per game through the air.


New York Jets -2 (-105) over Miami Dolphins: The Jets were one of the most pleasant surprises in the league through nine weeks when they sat at 5-4, although they were very inconsistent by beating good teams and losing to bad teams. One thing that was “consistent in their inconsistency” though was that they alternated wins and losses through their nine games before their bye, and that continued when they lost 37-14 at Buffalo coming out of their break. However, they then lost their second straight game for the first time this year when they fell 19-3 to the Baltimore Ravens on the road last week. That makes the Jets part of the logjam of 5-6 teams in the AFC, including their opponents here from Miami. This is the Jets’ first home game since their bye week though, and they have only lost once at home to the Steelers while beating the likes of the Patriots and the Saints at MetLife Stadium. They now have a chance to get back on track vs. a Miami team that has gone 2-6 since an unexpected 3-0 start to the season while trying to battle through that whole bullying scandal. From a football perspective, that scandal leaves the Dolphins short on the offensive line, which is why they lead the league in sacks allowed, and the Jets have the defense to take advantage of that.


Atlanta Falcons, Buffalo Bills ‘under’ 46½ (-109) (at Toronto): The Falcons have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL, mainly because of injuries on offense and simply bad defense. However, that defense actually played well in a 17-13 loss to the Saints last week and the Falcons are not exactly facing a powerhouse offense here in what is really a semi-home game for the Bills in Toronto. The offense may continue to struggle though without the deep threat of Julio Jones to stretch the Buffalo defense. Poor Matt Ryan continues to do his best at quarterback but he simply has nothing around him. Running back Steven Jackson did have probably his best game as a Falcon vs. New Orleans though as he rushed for 63 yards on 16 carries, and the Falcons may opt to run the ball more here with both he and backup Jacquizz Rodgers vs. a Buffalo defense that is ranked 23rd defending the rush at 118.8 yards per game on 4.1 yards per carry. Now, Atlanta may have looked good against the Saints but they are still 29th vs. the run yielding 130 rushing yards per game and what little offensive success the Bills have had this year has come via the run as Buffalo is averaging a very good 134.1 rushing yards per game but only 197.0 passing yards. Thus, look for a lower scoring game north of the border than this posted total suggests with both teams emphasizing the run.


St. Louis Rams +8 (-109) over San Francisco 49ers: The 49ers are coming off of a nice and much needed win over the struggling Washington Redskins on Monday night, but they are now coming back on a short week to take on an improving Rams team that has given the Niners fits in recent years, including playing to a 24-24 tie here in San Francisco last season. The Rams have won two straight games thanks to their sudden emergence of a running game, first from Zac Stacy and then from Benny Cunningham, who rushed for 109 yards on only 13 carries last week after Stacy left the game with a concussion. Add in a sudden abundance of big plays from the previously quiet rookie Tavon Austin, consistently steady quarterback play from Kellen Clemens while filling in for Sam Bradford and a great coach in Jeff Fisher, and the Rams could remain a pesky team the rest of this year. The 49ers are welcoming back Michael Crabtree this week, which could be a boon to Colin Kaepernick as he has struggled without his favorite wide receiver this season. However, Crabtree should be on a limited snap count in his first game back and he might not even start, so the re-emergence of Kaepernick may be put on hold for another week or two.


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